No abstract

This paper focuses on the basic framework of operating risk evaluation method considering two key uncertain factors: the wind power prediction and extreme weather. The output model of large scale wind farms including the uncertainty of wind power forecast is proposed in this paper. Then the system generation margin model considering the ramp rate of conventional generators is built up to study the operating risk of power system. At last, based on the forecasted and measured data of wind farms in Gansu province, a simulation on RBTS indicates that the fluctuation of wind power is the essential source of the risk for power system with large scale of wind farms. The outage loss of power system in extreme weather is much higher than the risk in normal weather but with a much lower probability, which is a "HILP" event.