Background: It is necessary to identify valuable predictors of primary lymph node metastasis and prognosis for patients with synchronous colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRLM) with simultaneous resection of colorectal cancer (CRC) and liver metastases. This study constructed nomograms especially incorporating preoperative testing markers to predict primary lymph node metastases and prognosis in CRLM patients.Methods: By the highest Youden index (sensitivity + 1-specificity), the optimal cut-off values of testing markers for postoperative major complications and lymph node metastasis were identified. Multivariate regression analysis was used to reveal independent predictors for primary lymph node metastasis, postoperative major complications and progression-free survival (PFS). Nomograms based on independent predictors were constructed, and the discrimination and calibration were evaluated. Results: A nomogram predicting primary lymph node metastasis was based on four risky independent predictors: American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score 3-4, preoperative albumin (ALB) <41.15 g/L, poor differentiation and multiple liver metastases. The performance of the model was acceptable in predicting lymph node metastasis, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.655 (95% CI: 0.591-0.739). Calibration curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test revealed desirable model calibration (chi-square: 13.26, P=0.815). In the multivariate analysis, preoperative lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) ≥202.5 U/L [odds ratio (OR) =2.084, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.039-4.181, P=0.039] and operation time ≥350.5 min (OR =2.848, 95% CI: 1.418-5.723, P=0.003) were independently associated with the presence of postoperative major complications. A nomogram predicting PFS was constructed based on poor differentiation, positive lymph node metastasis, bilobar liver distribution and R0 resection with good discrimination (C-index: 0.656±0.021) and calibration.Conclusions: This study established predictive nomograms specifically incorporating preoperative ALB and LDH levels for the prediction of primary lymph node metastasis and prognosis in synchronous CRLM patients with simultaneous resection, which have favourable discrimination and calibration to make individualized predictions.

Background Simultaneous resections have been increasingly performed for colorectal liver metastasis patients. However, studies explored risk stratification for these patients are scarce. Among which, a clear definition of early recurrence remains controversial and models for predicting early recurrence in these patients are lacking. Methods Colorectal liver metastasis patients who developed recurrence followed by simultaneous resection were enrolled. Early recurrence was determined by the minimum P value method, and patients were divided into an early recurrence group and late recurrence group. Standard clinical data were collected from each patient including demographics features, preoperative laboratory tests and postoperative regular follow-up results. All the data were accessed by clinicians and recorded accordingly. The nomogram for early recurrence was constructed in the training cohort and validated externally in the test cohort. Results The optimal value of early recurrence by the minimum P value method was 13 months. A total of 323 patients were included in the training cohort, of which 241 (74.6%) experienced early recurrence. Seventy-one patients were included in the test cohort, of which 49 (69.0%) experienced early recurrence. Significantly worse post-recurrence survival (median 27.0 vs. 52.8 months, P=0.00083) and overall survival (median 33.8 vs. 70.9 months, P<0.0001) were observed in patients with early recurrence in the training cohort. Positive lymph node metastases (P=0.003), tumour burden scores ≥4.09 (P=0.001), preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratios ≥1.44 (P=0.006), preoperative blood urea nitrogen levels ≥3.55 µmol/L (P=0.017) and postoperative complications (P=0.042) were independently associated with early recurrence, and all these predictors were included in the nomogram. The nomogram for predicting early recurrence had a receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.720 in the training cohort and a receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.740 in the test cohort. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curves showed acceptable model calibration in the training set (P=0.7612) and in the test set (P=0.8671). The decision curve analysis results for the training cohort and test cohort also indicated that the nomogram showed good clinical applicability. Conclusions Our findings provide clinicians with new insights into accurate risk stratification for colorectal liver metastasis patients receiving simultaneous resection and contributing to the management of patients.

ObjectiveTo investigate the impact of postoperative infectious complications (POI) on the long-term outcomes of patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRLM) after simultaneous resection of colorectal cancer and liver metastases.MethodsFour hundred seventy-nine CRLM patients receiving simultaneous resection between February 2010 and February 2018 at our hospital were enrolled. A 1:3 propensity score matching analysis (PSM) analysis was performed to balance covariates and avoid selection bias. After PSM, 90 patients were distributed to the POI group, and 233 patients were distributed to the no POI group. A log-rank test was performed to compare the progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) data. A multivariate Cox regression model was employed to identify prognostic factors influencing OS and PFS. A value of two-sided P&lt;0.05 was considered statistically significant.ResultsCompared to patients in the no POI group, patients in the POI group were more likely to have hepatic portal occlusion (78.9% vs. 66.3%, P=0.021), operation time ≥325 min (61.1% vs. 48.1%, P=0.026), and intraoperative blood loss ≥200 ml (81.1% vs. 67.6%, P=0.012). In multivariate analysis, intraoperative blood loss ≥200 ml (OR = 2.057, 95% CI: 1.165-3.634, P=0.013) was identified as the only independent risk factor for POI. Patients with POI had a worse PFS (P&lt;0.001, median PFS: 7.5 vs. 12.7 months) and a worse OS (P=0.010, median OS: 38.8 vs. 59.0 months) than those without POI. After 1:3 PSM analysis, no differences in clinicopathologic parameters were detected between the POI group and the no POI group. Patients with POI had a worse PFS (P=0.013, median PFS: 7.5 vs. 11.1 months) and a worse OS (P=0.020, median OS: 38.8 vs. 59.0 months) than those without POI. Multivariate analysis showed that POI was an independent predictor for worse PFS (HR=1.410, 95% CI: 1.065-1.869, P=0.017) and worse OS (HR=1.682, 95% CI: 1.113-2.544, P=0.014).ConclusionsPOI can significantly worsen the long-term outcomes of CRLM patients receiving simultaneous resection of colorectal cancer and liver metastases and should be considered to improve postoperative management and make better treatment decisions for these patients.

Background To explore the clinical prognostic utility of the preoperative cholesterol-to-lymphocyte ratio (CLR) in outcomes for colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRLM) patients receiving simultaneous resection of the primary lesion and liver metastases. Methods A total of 444 CRLM patients receiving simultaneous resections were enrolled. The optimal cut-off value for CLR was determined using the highest Youden’s index. Patients were divided into the CLR < 3.06 group and the CLR≥3.06 group. Propensity score matching analysis (PSM) and the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) method were conducted to eliminate bias between the two groups. The outcomes included short-term outcomes and long-term outcomes. Kaplan–Meier curves and log-rank tests were used to analyse progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Results In the short-term outcome analysis, after 1:1 PSM, 137 patients were distributed to the CLR < 3.06 group and CLR≥3.06 group. No significant difference was noted between the two groups (P > 0.1). Compared with patients with CLR < 3.06, patients with CLR≥3.06 had comparable operation times (320.0 [272.5–421.0] vs. 360.0 [292.5-434.5], P = 0.088), blood loss (200.0 [100.0-400.0] vs. 200.0 [150.0-450.0], P = 0.831), postoperative complication rates (50.4% vs. 46.7%, P = 0.546) and postoperative ICU rates (5.8% vs. 11.7%, P = 0.087). In the long-term outcome analysis, Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that compared with patients with CLR < 3.06, patients with CLR≥3.06 had worse PFS (P = 0.005, median: 10.2 months vs. 13.0 months) and OS (P = 0.002, median: 41.0 months vs. 70.9 months). IPTW-adjusted Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that the CLR≥3.06 group had worse PFS (P = 0.027) and OS (P = 0.010) than the CLR < 3.06 group. In the IPTW-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, CLR≥3.06 was an independent factor for PFS (HR = 1.376, 95% CI 1.097–1.726, P = 0.006) and OS (HR = 1.723, 95% CI 1.218–2.439, P = 0.002). IPTW-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression analysis including postoperative complications, operation time, intraoperative blood loss, intraoperative blood transfusion and postoperative chemotherapy revealed that CLR≥3.06 was an independent factor for PFS (HR = 1.617, 95% CI 1.252–2.090, P < 0.001) and OS (HR = 1.823, 95% CI 1.258–2.643, P = 0.002). Conclusions The preoperative CLR level predicts unfavourable outcomes in CRLM patients receiving simultaneous resection of the primary lesion and liver metastases and should be taken into consideration when developing treatment and monitoring strategies.

Background: The current study analysed rectal neuroendocrine tumour (RNET) patients undergoing resection to identify predictive factors and construct nomograms for lymph node metastasis, cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Methods: RNET patients registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were included in this study. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the relationships between clinicopathological factors and lymph node metastasis. A multivariate competing risk model was applied to investigate factors independently associated with CSS. Through the Cox regression model, a multivariable analysis of OS was performed. Nomograms were established based on independent predictive factors. Calibration plots, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Brier scores were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the nomograms. Results: In this study, 1,253 RNET patients were included for further analysis. Tumour size ≥12 mm (P<0.001), T3/T4 stage (P<0.001) and M1 stage (P=0.001) were independently associated with lymph node metastasis. The performance of the nomogram was acceptable for predicting lymph node metastasis, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.937 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.874-1.000]. Calibration curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test revealed desirable model calibration (P=0.99996). The multivariate competing risk model analysis showed that grade II (P=0.017), tumour size ≥12 mm (P=0.007), AJCC TNM stage II (P=0.002), stage III (P<0.001) and stage IV (P<0.001) were significantly associated with worse CSS.In the competing risk nomogram model, the time-dependent AUC revealed good discriminatory ability of the model (time from 1 to 107 months, AUC >0.900), and the Brier score showed good accuracy of the nomogram, which was greater than that of the AJCC TNM stage. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that age >60 years (P=0.002), median income ≥$65,000 (P=0.013), AJCC TNM stage III (P=0.038) and AJCC TNM stage IV (P<0.001) were independently associated with worse OS. In the nomogram for the prediction of OS, the C-statistic was 0.703 (95% CI: 0.615-0.792), which was significantly better than that of the AJCC TNM stage (0.703 vs. 0.607, P=0.009). A calibration plot for the probability of survival demonstrated good calibration. Conclusions:The present study is the first to establish nomograms with great discrimination and accuracy for the prediction of lymph node metastases, CSS and OS in RNET patients, which can be used to guide treatment decision-making and surveillance.^ ORCID: 0000-0003-0323-5190. Variable declarationClinicopathological variables included age at diagnosis, sex, race, histological grade, T stage (AJCC, 7th ed.), N stage (AJCC, 7th ed.), M stage (AJCC, 7th ed.), tumour size, survival time, cause of death etc. were retrieved. AJCC 7th TNM stage was divided into stages I through IV according to T stage, N stage and M stage. The optimal cut-off value of tumour size for survival was obtained by X-tile...