No abstract

Awash River basin (ARB) as a system is in a state of continuous change that requires successive studies to discern the changes or trends of climatic elements through time due to climate change/variability, and other socio-economical developmental activities in the basin. The livelihood of communities in the ARB is primarily based on rainfall-dependent agriculture. Effects of rainfall anomalies such as reduction of agricultural productivity, water scarcity, and food insecurity are becoming more prevalent in this area. In recent years, ARB has been experiencing more frequent rainfall anomalies that change-point detection test and trend analyses of basin rainfall associated with sea surface temperature is crucial in providing guidance to improve agricultural productivity in ARB. Change-point detection tests such as Pettit's, the von Neumann ratio (VNR), Buishand's range (BR) and standard normal homogeneity (SNH) plus trend analysis Mann-Kendall (MK) test of rainfall and temperature data from 29 meteorological stations in the ARB were carried out from 1986 to 2016. A significant increasing trend of annual and seasonal temperature was found. The temperature change-points for the annual and major rainy season (MRS) were detected in 2001, while for the minor rainy season (mRS) in 1997. A significant decreasing trend, shift, and high variability of rainfall were detected in the downstream part of the ARB. The BR and SNH results showed that the mRS rainfall change-point was in 1998, with a subsequent mean annual decrease of 52.5 mm. The increase (decrease) of rainfall in the annual and MRS was attributable to La Niña (El Niño) events. The significant decreasing trend and change-point of rainfall in the mRS was attributable to the steady warming of the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, local warming, and La Niña events. With this knowledge of the current trends and change-point for rainfall and temperature in the ARB, it is therefore essential that appropriate integrated water management and water-harvesting technologies are established, especially in the downstream areas. Moreover, early detection of El Niño episodes would provide invaluable warning of impending rainfall anomalies in the ARB and would enable better preparations to mitigate its negative effects.

Assessing future challenges in water resources management is crucial to the Melka Kuntrie (MK) subbasin suffering water shortage. Impact assessments are evaluated by the HBV hydrological model with six scenarios, including two GCMs of AR4-A2 and two GCMs of AR5-RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, for the time periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. Evapotranspiration is expected to increase under all scenarios—due to rising temperature—and induce more water stress on rainfed agriculture of the area. However, the increase in the monthly minimum temperature is beneficial to crops against chilling damages. Five out of six projections show significant increases of rainfall and streamflow in both annual and major rainy seasons, except ECHAM-A2. Annual rainfall (streamflow) is expected to increase by 38% (23%) and 57% (49%) during 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, respectively, under RCP8.5 scenarios. Greater flashflood risk is a concern because of the projected increase in streamflow. The projection of decreased streamflow with ECHAM-A2 will exacerbate the existing water shortage, especially in the minor rainy season. Water harvesting during the major rainy season would be vital to enhance water management capacities and reduce flashflood risks. Lacking sufficient hydraulic and irrigation infrastructures, the MK subbasin will be more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.