Popularity is often included in experimental evaluation to provide a reference performance for a recommendation task. To understand how popularity baseline is defined and evaluated, we sample 12 papers from top-tier conferences including KDD, WWW, SIGIR, and RecSys, and 6 open source toolkits. We note that the widely adopted MostPop baseline simply ranks items based on the number of interactions in the training data. We argue that the current evaluation of popularity (i) does not reflect the popular items at the time when a user interacts with the system, and (ii) may recommend items released after a user's last interaction with the system. On the widely used MovieLens dataset, we show that the performance of popularity could be significantly improved by 70% or more, if we consider the popular items at the time point when a user interacts with the system. We further show that, on MovieLens dataset, the users having lower tendencies on movies tend to follow the crowd and rate more popular movies. Movie lovers who rate a large number of movies, rate movies based on their own preferences and interests. Through this study, we call for a re-visit of the popularity baseline in recommender system to better reflect its effectiveness.

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Recommender models are hard to evaluate, particularly under offline setting. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive and critical analysis of the data leakage issue in recommender system offline evaluation. Data leakage is caused by not observing global timeline in evaluating recommenders e.g., train/test data split does not follow global timeline. As a result, a model learns from the user-item interactions that are not expected to be available at prediction time. We first show the temporal dynamics of user-item interactions along global timeline, then explain why data leakage exists for collaborative filtering models. Through carefully designed experiments, we show that all models indeed recommend future items that are not available at the time point of a test instance, as the result of data leakage. The experiments are conducted with four widely used baseline models - BPR, NeuMF, SASRec, and LightGCN, on four popular offline datasets - MovieLens-25M, Yelp, Amazon-music, and Amazon-electronic, adopting leave-last-one-out data split. We further show that data leakage does impact models’ recommendation accuracy. Their relative performance orders thus become unpredictable with different amount of leaked future data in training. To evaluate recommendation systems in a realistic manner in offline setting, we propose a timeline scheme, which calls for a revisit of the recommendation model design.

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