AbstrakHarga cabai rawit yang berfluktuasi menyebabkan petani cabai rawit takut akan adanya kerugian karena tidak dapat memprediksi harga. Salah satu cara yang bisa dilakukan untuk mencegah kerugian adalah dengan melakukan peramalan (forecasting). Peramalan merupakan metode yang digunakan untuk memprediksi sesuatu di masa depan menggunakan data di masa lalu. Salah satu metode peramalan bernama Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing, merupakan metode yang biasa digunakan pada barang yang memiliki pola harga musiman, sesuai dengan cabai rawit yang merupakan tanaman musiman. Peramalan yang dilakukan menggunakan data sebanyak 108 buah, yaitu data harga rata-rata bulanan cabai rawit di Kota Malang dari 2012-2020. Menggunakan nilai inisialisasi level 0.99, trend 0.01, seasonal 0.01, didapatkan MAPE sebesar 31%, MAD sebesar 9762, dan MSD sebesar 183465457. Hasil peramalan harga cabai rawit di Kota Malang untuk tahun 2021 mengalami pola naik dan turun. Bila dibandingkan dengan data aktual, harga peramalan lebih rendah daripada harga aktual, tetapi pola yang dihasilkan sama, dikarenakan musim penghujan dari bulan Januari yang menyebabkan petani menjadi gagal panen, dan harga melambung tinggi. Rekomendasi untuk para petani di Kota Malang adalah dengan mengatur luas tanam pada saat musim penghujan, melakukan penanaman secara tumpangsari, menjual cabai rawit dalam bentuk selain cabai rawit segar, dan menjalin kemitraan dengan perusahaan.Kata kunci: cabai rawit, peramalan harga, holt-winters exponential smoothingAbstractThe fluctuating price of rawit chilli causes rawit chilli farmers to hesitate to plant rawit chilli, because they are afraid of losses. A way that can be done to prevent losses is by forecasting. Forecasting is a method used to predict something in the future using data from the past. One of the forecasting methods is called Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing, which is commonly used for goods that have seasonal price patterns, and one of them is rawit chilli. Forecasting is done by using 108 data units, consist of data on the monthly average price of rawit chilli in Malang City from 2012-2020. With level initialization value of 0.99, trend of 0.01, seasonal of 0.01, they produce MAPE of 31%, MAD of 9762, and MSD of 183465457. The results of forecasting of the rawit chilli’s price experience up and down pattern. When compared with the actual data, the forecasted price is lower than the actual price, but the pattern is the same, due to the rainy season from January which causes farmers to fail, and prices soar. Recommendations that can be given to farmers in Malang City are to regulate the planting area during the rainy season, do intercropping, sell rawit chilli in forms other than fresh rawit chilli, and establish partnerships with companies.Keywords: rawit chilli, forecasting, holt-winters exponential smoothing
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