Changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases lead to changes in radiative fluxes throughout the atmosphere. The value of this change, the instantaneous radiative forcing, varies across climate models, due partly to differences in the distribution of clouds, humidity, and temperature across models and partly due to errors introduced by approximate treatments of radiative transfer. This paper describes an experiment within the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparision Project that uses benchmark calculations made with line-by-line models to identify parameterization error in the representation of absorption and emission by greenhouse gases. Clear-sky instantaneous forcing by greenhouse gases is computed using a set of 100 profiles, selected from a reanalysis of present-day conditions, that represent the global annual mean forcing from preindustrial times to the present day with sampling errors of less than 0.01 W m −2. Six contributing line-by-line models agree in their estimate of this forcing to within 0.025 W m −2 while even recently developed parameterizations have typical errors 4 or more times larger, suggesting both that the samples reveal true differences among line-by-line models and that parameterization error will be readily identifiable. Agreement among line-by-line models is better in the longwave than in the shortwave where differing treatments of the water vapor continuum affect estimates of forcing by carbon dioxide and methane. The impacts of clouds on instantaneous radiative forcing are estimated from climate model simulations, and the adjustment due to stratospheric temperature changes estimated by assuming fixed dynamical heating. Adjustments are large only for ozone and for carbon dioxide, for which stratospheric cooling introduces modest nonlinearity. The models participating in the previous phase of CMIP translated prescribed changes in atmospheric composition into a relatively wide range of effective radiative forcing, much of which remains even when model-specific adjustments are accounted for (e.g., Chung & Soden, 2015); initial results (Smith et al., 2020

Abstract. The CNES (French Space Agency) and DLR (German Space Agency) project MERLIN is a future integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) lidar satellite mission that aims at measuring methane dry-air mixing ratio columns (XCH4) in order to improve surface flux estimates of this key greenhouse gas. To reach a 1 % relative random error on XCH4 measurements, MERLIN signal processing performs an averaging of data over 50 km along the satellite trajectory. This article discusses how to process this horizontal averaging in order to avoid the bias caused by the non-linearity of the measurement equation and measurements affected by random noise and horizontal geophysical variability. Three averaging schemes are presented: averaging of columns of XCH4, averaging of columns of differential absorption optical depth (DAOD) and averaging of signals. The three schemes are affected both by statistical and geophysical biases that are discussed and compared, and correction algorithms are developed for the three schemes. These algorithms are tested and their biases are compared on modelled scenes from real satellite data. To achieve the accuracy requirements that are limited to 0.2 % relative systematic error (for a reference value of 1780 ppb), we recommend performing the averaging of signals corrected from the statistical bias due to the measurement noise and from the geophysical bias mainly due to variations of methane optical depth and surface reflectivity along the averaging track. The proposed method is compliant with the mission relative systematic error requirements dedicated to averaging algorithms of 0.06 % (±1 ppb for XCH4=1780ppb) for all tested scenes and all tested ground reflectivity values.