The Amundsen Sea sector is experiencing the largest mass loss, glacier acceleration, and grounding line retreat in Antarctica. Enhanced intrusion of Circumpolar Deep Water onto the continental shelf has been proposed as the primary forcing mechanism for the retreat. Here we investigate the dynamics and evolution of Thwaites Glacier with a novel, fully coupled, ice‐ocean numerical model. We obtain a significantly improved agreement with the observed pattern of glacial retreat using the coupled model. Coupled simulations over the coming decades indicate a continued mass loss at a sustained rate. Uncoupled simulations using a depth‐dependent parameterization of sub‐ice‐shelf melt significantly overestimate the rate of grounding line retreat compared to the coupled model, as the parameterization does not capture the complexity of the ocean circulation associated with the formation of confined cavities during the retreat. Bed topography controls the pattern of grounding line retreat, while oceanic thermal forcing impacts the rate of grounding line retreat. The importance of oceanic forcing increases with time as Thwaites grounding line retreats farther inland.

Melting of West Antarctic ice shelves is enhanced by Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) intruding onto the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas (ABS) continental shelves. Despite existing studies of cross-shelf and on-shelf CDW transports, CDW pathways onto the ABS originating from further offshore have never been investigated. Here, we investigate CDW pathways onto the ABS using a regional ocean model. Simulated CDW tracers from a zonal section across 67°S (S04P) circulate along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and Ross Gyre (RG) and travel into ABS continental shelf after 3–5 years, but source locations are shifted westward by ~900 km along S04P in 2001–2006 compared to 2009–2014. We find that simulated on- and off-shelf CDW is ~0.1–0.2 °C warmer in the 2009–2014 case than in the 2001–2006 case together with changes in simulated ocean circulation. These differences are primarily caused by lateral, rather than surface, boundary conditions, implying that large-scale atmospheric and ocean circulations are able to control CDW pathways and thus off- and on-shelf CDW properties.

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It has been suggested that an increased melting of continental ice in the Amundsen Sea (AS) and Bellingshausen Sea (BS) is a likely source of the observed freshening of Ross Sea (RS) water. To test this hypothesis, we simulate the spreading of glacial meltwater using the Finite Element Sea Ice/Ice Shelf/Ocean Model. Based on the spatial distribution of simulated passive tracers, most of the basal meltwater from AS ice shelves flows toward the RS with more than half of the melt originating from the Getz Ice Shelf. Further, the model results show that a slight increase of the basal mass loss can substantially intensify the transport of meltwater into the RS due to a strengthening of the melt‐driven shelf circulation and the westward flowing coastal current. This supports the idea that the basal melting of AS and BS ice shelves is one of the main sources for the RS freshening.

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