This paper examines the effects of the 2012 revisions to the damage predictions of an anticipated Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake on subsequent intermunicipality migration in Japan's coastal areas. We find that an increase in predicted tsunami height-rather than anticipated seismic movements-after the 2012 revision is associated with a subsequent reduction in net migration. While the reducing effect of tsunami predictions on in-migration persisted throughout the study period, the effect on out-migration was only temporary. Moreover, workingage people are more likely to respond to tsunami risk and avoid moving to municipalities with a high tsunami risk after the revisions.

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