Models for adequately estimating water consumption in Taiwanese government institutions were developed to assist the government to more accurately predict and account for their water needs. A correlation coefficient matrix of associated factors was constructed based on records per unit of water consumption, describing the impact of various water consumption factors. To understand and quantify the effect of the impact factors, linear and nonlinear regression models, as well as an artificial neural network model were adopted. To account for data variability, the data used for modelling were either fully or partially adopted. For partial adoption, the quartile method was employed to remove any outliers. Analysis of the factors affecting water consumption revealed that the building floor area and number of personnel in an organization had the largest impact on estimated consumption, followed by the number of residential personnel. As the coefficient of variation for the green irrigated area and number of consulting personnel was low, the total area and the total number personnel of water consumption decreased the effectiveness of the model.
In this paper, we have constructed a model to price currency option. It contributes to releasing some assumptions the Black-Scholes' (1973) model makes. One of them is that the log price of asset doesn't follow a normal distribution any more. The other one is the interest rates in the domestic and foreign countries become stochastic. This general formula is first proposed by Amin and Jarrow (1991). Based on this model, we build extended normal distribution model [developed by Ki, Choi, Chang and Lee (2005)] under the assumption of stochastic interest rate economy. In numerical examples, our proposed model would be compared with Amin and Jarrow (1991) under CIR [Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1985)] interest rate term structure. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulation is used to provide another outcome to be another comparative example. Finally, we think that the proposed model provides more correct currency option prices when taking account of stochastic interests and extended normal distribution. The drawback of the Black-Scholes' formula which fails to catch the volatility smile effect is resolved by using the proposed model. The market participants can use the actual market data to calibrate the parameters of the proposed model and use the proposed model to price the currency options and derivatives accurately.
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