The pan-cancer analysis of whole genomes The expansion of whole-genome sequencing studies from individual ICGC and TCGA working groups presented the opportunity to undertake a meta-analysis of genomic features across tumour types. To achieve this, the PCAWG Consortium was established. A Technical Working Group implemented the informatics analyses by aggregating the raw sequencing data from different working groups that studied individual tumour types, aligning the sequences to the human genome and delivering a set of high-quality somatic mutation calls for downstream analysis (Extended Data Fig. 1). Given the recent meta-analysis

The marginal likelihood is commonly used for comparing different evolutionary models in Bayesian phylogenetics and is the central quantity used in computing Bayes Factors for comparing model fit. A popular method for estimating marginal likelihoods, the harmonic mean (HM) method, can be easily computed from the output of a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis but often greatly overestimates the marginal likelihood. The thermodynamic integration (TI) method is much more accurate than the HM method but requires more computation. In this paper, we introduce a new method, steppingstone sampling (SS), which uses importance sampling to estimate each ratio in a series (the "stepping stones") bridging the posterior and prior distributions. We compare the performance of the SS approach to the TI and HM methods in simulation and using real data. We conclude that the greatly increased accuracy of the SS and TI methods argues for their use instead of the HM method, despite the extra computation needed.

Summary We describe the landscape of somatic genomic alterations of 66 chromophobe renal cell carcinomas (ChRCCs) based on multidimensional and comprehensive characterization, including mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and whole genome sequencing. The result is consistent that ChRCC originates from the distal nephron compared to other kidney cancers with more proximal origins. Combined mtDNA and gene expression analysis implicates changes in mitochondrial function as a component of the disease biology, while suggesting alternative roles for mtDNA mutations in cancers relying on oxidative phosphorylation. Genomic rearrangements lead to recurrent structural breakpoints within TERT promoter region, which correlates with highly elevated TERT expression and manifestation of kataegis, representing a mechanism of TERT up-regulation in cancer distinct from previously-observed amplifications and point mutations.

Cancer develops through a process of somatic evolution 1,2. Sequencing data from a single biopsy represent a snapshot of this process that can reveal the timing of specific genomic aberrations and the changing influence of mutational processes 3. Here, by whole-genome sequencing analysis of 2,658 cancers as part of the Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium of the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) 4 , we reconstruct the life history and evolution of mutational processes and driver mutation sequences of 38 types of cancer. Early oncogenesis is characterized by mutations in a constrained set of driver genes, and specific copy number gains, such as trisomy 7 in glioblastoma and isochromosome 17q in medulloblastoma. The mutational spectrum changes significantly throughout tumour evolution in 40% of samples. A nearly fourfold diversification of driver genes and increased genomic instability are features of later stages. Copy number alterations often occur in mitotic crises, and lead to simultaneous gains of chromosomal segments. Timing analyses suggest that driver mutations often precede diagnosis by many years, if not decades. Together, these results determine the evolutionary trajectories of cancer, and highlight opportunities for early cancer detection. Similar to the evolution in species, the approximately 10 14 cells in the human body are subject to the forces of mutation and selection 1. This process of somatic evolution begins in the zygote and only comes to rest at death, as cells are constantly exposed to mutagenic stresses, introducing 1-10 mutations per cell division 2. These mutagenic forces lead to a gradual accumulation of point mutations throughout life, observed in a range of healthy tissues 5-11 and cancers 12. Although these mutations are predominantly selectively neutral passenger mutations, some are proliferatively advantageous driver mutations 13. The types of mutation in cancer genomes are well studied, but little is known about the times when these lesions arise during somatic evolution and where the boundary between normal evolution and cancer progression should be drawn. Sequencing of bulk tumour samples enables partial reconstruction of the evolutionary history of individual tumours, based on the catalogue of somatic mutations they have accumulated 3,14,15. These inferences include timing of chromosomal gains during early somatic evolution 16 , phylogenetic analysis of late cancer evolution using matched primary and metastatic tumour samples from individual patients 17-20 , and temporal ordering of driver mutations across many samples 21,22 .

SummaryCancer develops through a process of somatic evolution. Here, we use whole-genome sequencing of 2,778 tumour samples from 2,658 donors to reconstruct the life history, evolution of mutational processes, and driver mutation sequences of 39 cancer types. The early phases of oncogenesis are driven by point mutations in a small set of driver genes, often including biallelic inactivation of tumour suppressors. Early oncogenesis is also characterised by specific copy number gains, such as trisomy 7 in glioblastoma or isochromosome 17q in medulloblastoma. By contrast, increased genomic instability, a nearly four-fold diversification of driver genes, and an acceleration of point mutation processes are features of later stages. Copy-number alterations often occur in mitotic crises leading to simultaneous gains of multiple chromosomal segments. Timing analysis suggests that driver mutations often precede diagnosis by many years, and in some cases decades, providing a window of opportunity for early cancer detection.