Abstract:We use new data to examine the effects of giant oilfield discoveries around the world since 1946. On average, these discoveries increase per capita oil production and oil exports by up to 50 percent. But these giant oilfield discoveries also have a dark side: they increase the incidence of internal armed conflict by about 5-8 percentage points. This increased incidence of conflict due to giant oilfield discoveries is especially high for countries that had already experienced armed conflicts or coups in the decade prior to discovery.

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This paper exploits a unique historical setting—the expansion of the telegraph network in nineteenth-century China when railroads were limited—to examine whether the reduction of information frictions stabilizes grain prices. Employing a difference-in-difference (DID) strategy, we find that the telegraph access (i) reduced both the magnitude and the incidence of extreme prices; (ii) mitigated price responses to local weather shocks but increased the responsiveness to shocks in other telegraph-connected regions; (iii) affected the price volatility in a mean-reverting pattern; i.e., volatility rose in previously price-stable regions, and volatility decreased in price-unstable regions. (JEL D83, L96, N55, N75, O13, O18, Q11)

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