The Tibetan Plateau (TP) contains the largest permafrost region in the mid–low latitudes and the largest area of glaciers outside of the polar regions. In recent decades, this region has experienced vegetation greening (e.g., increasing leaf area index) due to climate change. As the largest exorheic river on the TP, the Upper Brahmaputra Basin (UBB) is very sensitive to climate change, experiencing the humidifying and significant warming. In this study, we investigated the spatiotemporal variability of frozen ground and vegetation over the last four decades in the UBB and explored how these changes have impacted river runoff using a water‐ and energy‐budget distributed hydrological model (WEB‐DHM). We found that almost 50% of permafrost transformed into seasonally frozen or unfrozen ground from 1981 to 2019 with the great improvement of vegetation leaf area index (LAI). Based on the variable‐controlling approach (set the air temperature or vegetation unchanged), we revealed that frozen ground degradation caused an average of 9.3 billion m3 of water loss per year, accounting for 5.4% of total UBB river runoff, even if frozen ground degradation can increase water resources at the early stage. However, vegetation greening has caused a runoff decline by 10.9 billion m3 (6.4%) annually due to enhanced evapotranspiration. These findings highlight that it is critical to understand and mitigate the impacts of changing frozen ground and vegetation, when managing water resources availability and ecosystem conservation under rapid climate change.

Abstract. Understanding the hydrological processes related to snow in global mountainous regions under climate change is necessary for achieving regional water and food security (e.g., the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals 2 and 6). However, the impacts of future snow changes on the hydrological processes in the high mountains of the “Third Pole” are still largely unclear. In this study, we aimed to project future snow changes and their impacts on hydrology in the upstream region of the Salween River (USR) under two shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) using a physically based cryosphere–hydrology model. We found that the climate would become warmer (0.2 ∘C per decade under SSP126 and 0.7 ∘C per decade under SSP585) and wetter (5 mm per decade under SPP126 and 27.8 mm per decade under SSP585) in the USR in the future under these two SSPs. In this context, the snowfall, snow cover, snow water equivalent, and snowmelt runoff are projected to exhibit significant decreasing trends during 1995–2100, and the decreases are projected to be most prominent in summer and autumn. The future (2021–2100) snowmelt runoff is projected to significantly increase in spring compared with the reference period (1995–2014), which would benefit the availability of water resources in the growing season. The annual total runoff would significantly increase in all of the future periods due to increased rainfall, which would increase the availability of water resources within the basin, but the high peak flow that occurs in summer may cause rain flooding with short duration and high intensity. Compared with the reference period (the contribution of snowmelt runoff to the total runoff was determined to be 17.5 %), the rain- and snow-dominated pattern of runoff would shift to a rain-dominated pattern after the near term (2021–2040) under SSP585, whereas it would remain largely unchanged under SSP126. Climate change would mainly change the pattern of the snowmelt runoff, but it would not change the annual hydrograph pattern (dominated by increased rainfall). These findings improve our understanding of the responses of cryosphere–hydrological processes under climate change, providing valuable information for integrated water resource management, natural disaster prevention, and ecological environmental protection at the Third Pole.

Abstract. Permafrost has been warming and thawing globally, with subsequent effects on the climate, hydrology, and the ecosystem. However, the permafrost thermal state variation in the northern lower limit of the permafrost zone (Xidatan) on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) is unclear. This study attempts to explore the changes and variability in this permafrost using historical (1970–2019) and future projection datasets from remote-sensing-based land surface temperature product (LST) and climate projections from Earth system model (ESM) outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5, CMIP6). Our model considers phase-change processes of soil pore water, thermal-property differences between frozen and unfrozen soil, geothermal flux flow, and the ground ice effect. Our model can consistently reproduce the vertical ground temperature profiles and active layer thickness (ALT), recognizing permafrost boundaries, and capture the evolution of the permafrost thermal regime. The spatial distribution of permafrost and its thermal conditions over the study area were controlled by elevation with a strong influence of slope orientation. From 1970 to 2019, the mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) in the region warmed by 0.49 ∘C in the continuous permafrost zone and 0.40 ∘C in the discontinuous permafrost zone. The lowest elevation of the permafrost boundary (on the north-facing slopes) rose approximately 47 m, and the northern boundary of discontinuous permafrost retreated southwards by approximately 1–2 km, while the lowest elevation of the permafrost boundary remained unchanged for the continuous permafrost zone. The warming rate in MAGT is projected to be more pronounced under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) than under representative concentration pathways (RCPs), but there are no distinct discrepancies in the areal extent of the continuous and discontinuous permafrost and seasonally frozen ground among SSP and RCP scenarios. This study highlights the slow delaying process of the response of permafrost in the QTP to a warming climate, especially in terms of the areal extent of permafrost distribution.

Abstract. Permafrost has been warming and thawing at a global scale with subsequent effects on the climate, hydrological, ecosystem and engineering system. However, the variation of permafrost thermal state in the northern lower limit of the permafrost zone (Xidatan) on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is unclear. To evaluate and project the permafrost changes, this study simulated the spatiotemporal dynamics of this marginal permafrost historically (1970–2019) based on the detailed investigation and monitoring datasets from 1987 in this study region, improved remote sensing-based Land Surface Temperature product (LST) and climate projections from Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5, CMIP6). Our model takes into consideration of phase change processes of soil pore water, thermal property difference between frozen and thawed soil, geothermal flux flow, and ground ice effect. The results indicate that 1) our model can consistently reproduce the ground temperature field and active layer thickness (ALT), is superior in recognizing permafrost boundaries, and would realistically capture the evolution of the permafrost thermal regime, 2) spatial distribution of permafrost and its thermal conditions over the study area were controlled by elevational with a strong influence of slope aspects, 3) from 1970 to 2019, the regional averaged means annual ground temperature (MAGT) had warmed by 0.49 °C in the continuous permafrost zone and 0.40 °C in the discontinuous permafrost zone, and the lowest elevation of permafrost boundary (on north-facing slopes) rose approximately 47 m, as well as the northern boundary of discontinuous permafrost has approximately retreated southwards 1~2 km, while the lowest elevation of permafrost boundary remains unchanged for continuous permafrost zone, 4) the warming rate in MAGT is projected to be slighter higher under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) than that of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), but no distinct discrepancies in the areal extent of the continuous, discontinuous permafrost and seasonally frozen ground among SSP and RCP scenarios. This study highlights the slow delaying process in the response of mountain permafrost to a warming climate, especially in terms of the areal extent of permafrost distribution.

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