This study analyzes the triple path obstacles of land transfer income in supporting rural revitalization under the premise of existing policy support. It is innovative to try to de-qualitatively analyze the obstacle factors and quantitatively measure the degree of obstacles. We examined the potential obstacles to land transfer income supporting rural revitalization in China, measured the potential comprehensive obstacle degree of 31 provincial-level administrative divisions’ land transfer income supporting rural revitalization, and constructed a way to resolve the differences. We employed inter alia the entropy method, ideal solution similarity ranking method, and cluster analyses. Potential obstacles were divided into nine types. The resolution path was constructed by combining the original and weighted values of various obstacle factors in the top three obstacle factors. It is of great significance to ensure the effective implementation of China’s “opinions on adjusting and improving the scope of land transfer income to give priority to supporting rural revitalization” (2020). This study addresses the theoretical gap in the analysis of possible paths needed to support rural revitalization in China.

This study explains the fiscal ecological costs of land in China by dividing them into three periods: early ecological cost refers to loss of ecosystem service value after the conversion of agricultural land, mid-term ecological cost refers to land development in urban built-up areas, and later ecological cost refers to the investment cost of increasing the fiscal ecological service function of the land. Using data for 31 Chinese provinces from 2003 to 2017, we perform a “link between groups” cluster analysis with SPSS 22.0 statistical software. Squared Euclidean distance is used to analyze land in these provinces. Ecological cost in the early, middle, and late stages is clustered, and the provinces are divided into five areas according to the ecological cost of each stage in absolute terms and as a proportion of land fiscal revenue. The research shows that: (1) the fiscal ecological cost of land in China presents a spatial pattern of “higher in the east than in the west, higher in the south than in the north,” and (2) the cost is highest in the early stage, second highest in the late stage, and lowest in the middle stage. The findings yield differentiated policy recommendations for reducing the fiscal ecological cost of land in different areas.

This research examined the suitability and regional differences of the distribution ratio of land transfer income aimed at supporting rural revitalization by calculating the distribution ratio of 31 provincial-level administrative divisions (abbreviated as 31PLAD), while providing a reference template for land transfer incomes. Herein, we collated and calculated the fiscal expenditure of five dimensions of each province (city, district) in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, and then predicted the situation of the next period (that is, 2025) using GM (1, 1). Further, we used a time series to calculate the land transfer income of each province in 2025. After combining these two, the possible support of land transfer income in all dimensions of rural revitalization across the 31PLAD in 2025 was calculated. Then, according to the Dagum Gini coefficient method, the regional differences of each dimension across the 31PLAD were observed. The financial expenditure of the 31PLAD across the five dimensions studied revealed that the expenditure of industrial prosperity and its proportion is higher, followed by the dimensions of ecological livability and rural civilization. The expenditure of the other dimensions, except for that of affluence in Regions I and II, is better than that of the same dimension in the region. The overall differences among the 31PLAD represent low industrial prosperity, high affluent life, similar overall differences between rural civilization and effective governance, and relatively large differences in ecological livability. Our findings provide relevant suggestions that would help support rural revitalization effectively. After focusing on the first four dimensions of rural revitalization, we suggest measures to promote the development of other dimensions within industrial prosperity and the linkage and cross-development of all dimensions so as to achieve complete rural revitalization. Further, we specify local policies and regulations for using land transfer income to make overall plans and proper arrangements. According to the industrial development and changes found among the 31PLAD, the necessary support path ahead is clear. According to the forecast trend and changes in the income difference found in this study, the PLAD could use these to plan objectives, clarify fund management, establish relevant supervision systems, and develop policy communication methods, among other measures.