Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are arguably the most violent eruptions in the Solar System. CMEs can cause severe disturbances in the interplanetary space and even affect human activities in many respects, causing damages to infrastructure and losses of revenue. Fast and accurate prediction of CME arrival time is then vital to minimize the disruption CMEs may cause when interacting with geospace. In this paper, we propose a new approach for partial-/full-halo CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms (CAT-PUMA). Via detailed analysis of the CME features and solar wind parameters, we build a prediction engine taking advantage of 182 previously observed geo-effective partial-/full-halo CMEs and using algorithms of the Support Vector Machine (SVM). We demonstrate that CAT-PUMA is accurate and fast. In particular, predictions after applying CAT-PUMA to a test set, that is unknown to the engine, show a mean absolute prediction error ∼5.9 hours of the CME arrival time, with 54% of the predictions having absolute errors less than 5.9 hours. Comparison with other models reveals that CAT-PUMA has a more accurate prediction for 77% of the events investigated; and can be carried out very fast, i.e. within minutes after providing the necessary input parameters of a CME. A practical guide containing the CAT-PUMA engine and the source code of two examples are available in the Appendix, allowing the community to perform their own applications for prediction using CAT-PUMA.
We report an observation of robust suppression of edge-localized modes (ELMs) in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST), enabled by continuous boron (B) powder injection. Edge harmonic oscillations appear during B powder injection, providing sufficient particle transport to maintain constant density and avoid impurity accumulation in ELM-stable plasmas. Quasi-steady ELM suppression discharges are demonstrated with modest energy confinement improvement and over a wide range of conditions: heating power and technique variation, electron density range over a factor ∼3.5, deuterium or helium ion species, and with either direction of the toroidal magnetic field. ELM suppression is observed above a threshold edge B intensity and ceases within 0.5 s of termination of the B injection. In contrast to ELM suppression accompanied by recycling reduction during Li powder injection in NSTX and EAST (Maingi et al 2018 Nucl. Fusion 58 024003), reduced recycling due to hydrogenic species retention is unnecessary for the ELM suppression with B powder injection, paving the way for its consideration as an ELM control tool for future fusion devices.
The fast electron flux driven by Lower Hybrid Wave (LHW) in the scrape-off layer (SOL) in EAST is analyzed both theoretically and experimentally. The five bright belts flowing along the magnetic field lines in the SOL and hot spots at LHW guard limiters observed by charge coupled device and infrared cameras are attributed to the fast electron flux, which is directly measured by retarding field analyzers (RFA). The current carried by the fast electron flux, ranging from 400 to 6000 A/m 2 and in the direction opposite to the plasma current, is scanned along the radial direction from the limiter surface to the position about 25 mm beyond the limiter. The measured fast electron flux is attributed to the high parallel wave refractive index n jj components of LHW. According to the antenna structure and the LHW power absorbed by plasma, a broad parallel electric field spectrum of incident wave from the antennas is estimated. The radial distribution of LHW-driven current density is analyzed in SOL based on Landau damping of the LHW. The analytical results support the RFA measurements, showing a certain level of consistency. In addition, the deposition profile of the LHW power density in SOL is also calculated utilizing this simple model. This study provides some fundamental insight into the heating and current drive effects induced by LHW in SOL, and should also help to interpret the observations and related numerical analyses of the behaviors of bright belts and hot spots induced by LHW. V C 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.
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