Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) is an independent response of maritime market information for the trading and settlement of physical and derivative contracts. In this paper, we propose fuzzy set theory and grey system for modeling the prediction of BDI, and employ the ARIMA model for the calibration of the data structure to depict the trend. The empirical results indicate that for both short-term and long-term BDI data, the fuzzy time series model has the lowest prediction error; the structural change ARIMA model fits better for prediction in the long term, while the GM (1,1) model compared to proposed models has the greatest prediction error. Moreover, the relationship between current BDI and previous BDI is highly significant. In addition, the external interference is negatively related to the current BDI index. The conclusion of this paper provides the bulk shipping industry with a beneficial reference for market and risk assessment.

This study investigates the adverse effects of auditor initial going-concern qualified opinion (IGCQ) on the stock and audit market employing the bivariate probit model on Taiwanese public firms. Results show that (1) unobservable interference factors may be responsible for the adverse market effects, (2) interaction exists between the stock and audit markets, (3) the probability of auditor switching is higher if the client is delisted from the market or influenced endogenously, (4) the self-fulfilling prophecy effect is not supported in the Taiwanese stock market; (5) one year after an IGCQ is issued, the client is more likely to switch auditors.

Recently, U.S. firms are switching CEO at the fastest pace and these events often cause severe stock market volatility on the uncertainty of the firm's future performance. This study investigates whether inverse market reaction on CEO succession will induce earnings management of new CEOs in order to protect their reputational and career prospects. From a sample of 2,418 firm-years during the post-SOX period of 2003 to 2012 by applying the regression analysis, we investigate two associations of real earnings management (REM) with CEO successions and with its market reaction respectively. Our results suggest new CEOs are more careful when manipulate earnings through REM activities. However, REM is negatively associated with market expectations on CEO successions, implying new CEOs may utilize REM to reverse the first bad impressions held by investors. We provide a new perspective with regard to market reactions to CEO successions, by examining how and why new CEOs may choose to manipulate earnings.

This paper examines the survival period and the factors of business failure of firms who have been issued with an initial going concern opinion (IGCO) by auditors. Empirical results show that financial variables are not significant predictors for future delisting crisis, but the corporate governance variables are especially for firms under deteriorating financial condition. Important factors causing the higher rate of delisting risk include shorter listing years, lower rate of retained earnings to total assets, lower rate of market value of equity to total debts, and higher rate of pledged shares of directors' and supervisors' within 7.5 quarters after the IGCO issued, the number of delisting firms reaches its peak, consistent with the existence of self-fulfilling prophecy. The hazard delisting function first rises to a peak at the 38 th quarter and then declines rapidly, showing that after the disclosure of IGCO, first nine years is the delisting crisis period for Taiwan public firms.