The oak longhorned beetle (OLB), Massicus raddei (Blessig, 1872) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), is widely distributed in Asia (China, the Korean Peninsula, Japan, Vietnam and the Russian Far‐East), but pest outbreaks have occurred only in Liaoning Province and Jilin Province of China. In order to explore possible mechanisms of local population outbreaks and characterize the genetic diversity and genetic structure of M. raddei across its range in China, three mitochondrial genes ( COI, Cytb, and COII ) were sequenced and analyzed for seven M. raddei populations collected from six provinces in China. From these different populations, we found a high haplotype and nucleotide diversity. Haplotype networks and phylogenetic analyses both demonstrate apparent genetic diversification between SC (southern China) and NC (northern China) population groups. A set of 21 pairwise comparisons for Fst (pairwise fixation indices) and Nm (genetic flow index) showed significant genetic differentiation and limited gene flow except for two pairs, Shandong (SD) and Liaoning (LN), and Anhui (AH) and Henan (HN). This pattern suggested that the periodic outbreak of the LN population could not be attributed to the absence of genetic flow with other spatial populations and that regional environmental factors might be responsible. AMOVA (Analysis of molecular variance) showed that the greater molecular genetic variation was among populations. Based on Tajima's D statistic, Fu's Fs , and the mismatch distribution test, we determined that the seven populations sampled were stable and had not experienced any recent population expansion. The fact that all the sampled populations showed only unique haplotypes and lacked shared or ancestral haplotypes, as well as the nonstar‐like distribution of haplotype network for concatenated genes, collectively provided powerful evidence of the stable and isolated nature of most populations. The high genetic differentiation and spatial genetic structuring among populations are both likely related to the beetle's moderate flight capacity, regional variation in host tree species and microclimate, as well as the geographic distance between sampling sites.

Massicus raddei (Blessig) is a serious trunk borer of oak species, currently widespread only in eastern Asia. A better understanding of the invasive potential of this borer across other distribution-free areas is further needed to prevent its invasion and outbreaks. In this study, we mapped the current distribution of M. raddei, two susceptible hosts (Quercus mongolia and Q. liaotungensis) and all 11 host species of this borer, and then modeled their potential distributions. We comprehensively compared the current distributions and potential invasion ranges among M. raddei, susceptible hosts and all hosts to select areas at risk for the establishment of this borer. MaxEnt model predictions revealed that (1) the central and eastern US, a small area of central and western Europe, western Georgia, and central Argentina had suitable climates for M. raddei. Such highly suitable areas for this borer overlapped considerably with the current plantation and potential distributions of its hosts. Consequently, susceptible hosts and climate suitability together create the highest risk for M. raddei establishment and outbreaks, throughout central and eastern America, a small area of central Europe, western Norway and western Georgia, and (2) the broad host suitability across six continents creates a situation favorable for the colonization of this borer, further extending the spatial scale of possible infestation by M. raddei worldwide.