In this paper, shakedown analyses are carried out to predict the long-term response of slab track substructures under repeated moving train loads. The train loads are converted into a distributed moving load on the substructure surface by using a simplified track analysis. Based on Melan’s static shakedown theorem, a well-established shakedown analysis method is extended to determine shakedown limits of the slab track substructures. The influence of a linearly increasing stiffness modulus on the shakedown limits is considered by conducting finite-element analysis with a user-defined material. It is found that a rise in stiffness modulus or stiffness variation ratio can either increase or decrease the shakedown limit, depending on the competitive effects of the two mechanisms. Furthermore, the subgrade thickness determines the dominant mechanism.