No abstract

Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), a newly invaded pest that breaks out fast and severely, causes a serious threat to the national security of food production. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potentially suitable distribution area of S. frugiperda in Northwest China. The potential distribution of S. frugiperda was predicted using meteorological factors from the correlation analysis. According to the result, a satisfactory AUC value in the MaxEnt model indicates that the prediction model has good accuracy, which is sufficient for predicting the fitness zone of S. frugiperda in Northwest China. The prediction results show that the potential distribution risk of S. frugiperda is high in western Gansu, eastern Qinghai, Shaanxi, most regions of Ningxia, and part regions of Tibetan, and it also exists in Hami, Yili, Bozhou, Urumqi, Hotan, and Aksu in Xinjiang, and more than 60% of Northwest China are suitable distribution areas for S. frugiperda. As China's major wheat and maize production area, Northwest China is a crucial prevention area for S. frugiperda. Clarifying the potential geographical distribution of S. frugiperda in Northwest China is essential for early warning as well as prevention and control.