Dynamic origin-destination (OD) flow estimation is one of the most fundamental problems in traffic engineering. Despite numerous existing studies, the OD flow estimation problem remains challenging, as there is large dimensional difference between the unknown values to be estimated and the known traffic observations. To meet the needs of active traffic management and control, accurate time-dependent OD flows are required to understand time-of-day traffic flow patterns. In this work, we propose a three-dimensional (3D) convolution-based deep neural network, "Res3D," to learn the high-dimensional correlations between local traffic patterns presented by automatic vehicle identification observations and OD flows. In this paper, a practical framework combining simulation-based model training and few-shot transfer learning is introduced to enhance the applicability of the proposed model, as continuously observing OD flows could be expensive. The proposed model is extensively tested based on a realistic road network, and the results show that for significant OD flows, the relative errors are stable around 5%, outperforming several other models, including prevalent neural networks as well as existing estimation models. Meanwhile, corrupted and out-of-distribution samples are generated as real-world samples to validate Res3D's transferability, and the results indicated a 60% improvement with few-shot transfer learning. Therefore, this proposed framework could help to bridge the gaps between traffic simulations and empirical cases.
Dynamic path flows, referring to the number of vehicles that choose each path in a network over time, are generally estimated with the partial observations as the input. The automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system and probe vehicle trajectories are now popular and can provide rich and complementary trip information, but the data fusion was rarely explored. Therefore, in this paper, the dynamic path flow estimation is based on these two data sources and transformed into a feature learning problem. To fuse the two data sources belonging to different detection ways at the data level, the virtual AVI points, analogous to the real AVI points (turning movements at nodes with AVI detectors), are defined and selected to statically observe the dynamic movement of the probe vehicles. The corresponding selection principles and a programming model considering the distribution of real AVI points are first established. The selected virtual AVI points are used to construct the input tensor, and the turning movement-based observations from both the data sources can be extracted and fused. Then, a three-dimensional (3D) convolutional neural network (CNN) model is designed to exploit the hidden patterns from the tensor and establish the high-dimensional correlations with path flows. As the path flow labels commonly with noises, the bootstrapping method is adopted for model training and the corresponding relabeling principle is defined to purify the noisy labels. The entire model is extensively tested based on a realistic road network, and the results show that the designed CNN model with the presented data fusion method can perform well in training time and estimation accuracy. The robustness of a model to noisy labels is also improved through the bootstrapping method. The dynamic path flows estimated by the trained model can be applied to travel information provision, proactive route guidance, and signal control with high real-time requirements.
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