In order to scientifically evaluate the target damage effectiveness when warhead fragments formed by projectile explosion attack targets, this paper proposes a new method by using the multi-layer warhead fragments distribution division mechanism to study an evaluation and calculation model of target damage effectiveness under uncertain information of warhead fragments. On the basis of the spatial relationship between projectile explosion position and target, we first analyze the target damage rules based on the target’s own vulnerability characteristics. Then we use the fuzzy prior probability theory to establish the membership function of the target damage factor and an evaluation model of the target damage grade, and use the stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis method to obtain the evaluation index value of the target damage level. Finally, considering the ratio between the effective area of the warhead fragment group attacking target and the area of target itself and the effective number and area ratio of warhead fragments penetrating target, we give a numerical calculation method of target damage effectiveness. Through simulation and calculation, the results show that when the distance between the projectile explosion position and the target is less than 7 m and the coordinate interval of the projectile flight direction is −2.5 m to 2.5 m, the damage probability of warhead fragments to the target is greater than 75%. When the weight of the damage factor of the target changes, the damage effectiveness of the target also changes, and this result is in accordance with the actual experiment, which verifies the rationality of the proposed mathematical model.

The target damage assessment when a projectile is attacking a ground target under uncertain information is a difficult problem to solve, because the intersection-relative position of the projectile and target is a random distribution and the target damage is also uncertain in the intersection confrontation between projectile and target. This paper regards the projectile and target as two participants of the zero-sum non-cooperative confrontation game and studies an offensive/defensive game damage strategy modeling method when the projectile meets the target under uncertain information. According to the information of both the projectile and the target, from the perspective of the gain of the projectile attacking the ground target and the gain of the ground target defense, this paper establishes the indicator function of offensive/defensive game of projectile and target intersection under uncertain information and constructs the payoff matrix of the confrontation game between the projectile and the target. The Nash equilibrium of the game is obtained by combining the particle swarm optimization algorithm and the interval number multiple attribute ranking method in the case of uncertain information, and then, a new optimal damage assessment strategy method of Offensive/Defensive Game of projectile and target is gained, the method to solve the Nash equilibrium value of the payment matrix is given. Simulations are performed to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed game damage strategy model and the solution method.

To effectively evaluate the damage efficiency of the terminal-sensitive projectile to the ground target under the power of multiple projectiles, this paper proposes a new method to calculate the damaging effect of the ground target by dividing the falling multiple sensitive projectiles into a multi-layer plane, uses the superposition principle to set up the multiple projectile power situation and analyzes the distribution of projectiles falling near the ground. The paper researches the detection method of the terminal-sensitive projectile with laser and infrared composite detection and establishes the calculation model of laser reflection echo power and thermal radiated power of the target. From the aspects of detection, attack and electronic jamming abilities, this paper set up the calculation model for multiple projectile power situation. Based on the distribution of the terminal-sensitive projectile group established, the fuzzy relationship between each evaluation index of the ground target and the distribution state of the terminal-sensitive missile group is used to establish the power evaluation function of the terminal-sensitive projectile. The analysis results demonstrate that the power of terminal-sensitive projectiles is related to the distance of the intersection of projectile and target, and when the intersection distance is small, the damaging effect of terminal-sensitive projectiles on the ground targets is better.