With the recent advent of genetic engineering, numerous genetically modified (GM) crops have been developed, and field planting has been initiated. In open-environment cultivation, the cross-pollination (CP) of GM crops with wild relatives, conventional crops, and organic crops can occur. This exchange of genetic material results in the gene flow phenomenon. Consequently, studies of gene flow among GM crops have primarily focused on the extent of CP between the pollen source plot and the adjacent recipient field. In the present study, Black Pearl Waxy Corn (a variety of purple glutinous maize) was used to simulate a GM-maize pollen source. The pollen recipient was Tainan No. 23 Corn (a variety of white glutinous maize). The CP rate (%) was calculated according to the xenia effect on kernel color. We assessed the suitability of common empirical models of pollen-mediated gene flow (PMGF) for GM maize, and the field border (FB) effect of the model was considered for small-scale farming systems in Asia. Field-scale data were used to construct an optimal model for maize PMGF in the maize-producing areas of Chiayi County, southern Taiwan (R.O.C). Moreover, each model was verified through simulation and by using the 95% percentile bootstrap confidence interval length. According to the results, a model incorporating both the distance from the source and the FB can have optimal fitting and predictive abilities.
When genetically modified (GM) maize is planted in an open field, it may cross-pollinate with the nearby non-GM maize under certain airflow conditions. Suitable sampling methods are crucial for tracing adventitious GM content. By using field data and bootstrap simulation, we evaluated the performance of common sampling schemes to determine the adventitious GM content in small maize fields in Taiwan. A pollen dispersal model that considered the effect of field borders, which are common in Asian agricultural landscapes, was used to predict the cross-pollination (CP) rate. For the 2009–1 field data, the six-transect (T six ), JM method for low expected flow (JM[L]), JM method for high expected flow (JM[H]), and V-shaped transect (T V ) methods performed comparably to simple random sampling (SRS). T six , T V , JM(L), and JM(H) required only 13% or less of the sample size required by SRS. After the simulation and verification of the 2009–2 and 2010–1 field data, we concluded that T six , T V , JM(L), and systematic random sampling methods performed equally as well as SRS in CP rate predictions. Our findings can serve as a reference for monitoring the pollen dispersal tendencies of maize in countries with smallholder farming systems.
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