China's higher education system has expanded rapidly since 1999. Exploiting variation in the density of university expansion across provinces and high school cohorts and applying a difference-in-differences model, we estimate the impact of higher education expansion on educational access and attainment with a particular focus on students' family and demographic backgrounds. Results indicate that the expansion of university spots increased both access and graduation rates at 4-year universities, but this improvement was driven by those of higher social status, including males, those with highly educated fathers, hanethnic and urban students. Females, rural students and those with low-educated fathers also benefited once they were able to graduate from high school. Also, the policy had only a limited effect on the likelihood of graduating from high school. As in other countries, education expansion in China has not led to equal distribution of educational opportunities, and the least socioeconomically advantaged students are missing out.

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This paper studies the current differences in educational expectations between urban and rural students and explores the mechanism from the individual/family and school/society perspectives. The results show significant differences in expectations between rural and urban junior high school students for going on to higher education. In addition, urban students’ educational expectations are higher than that of rural and migrant students. These differences are caused by the students’ cognitive ability, family background, and school environment, among which the influence of family background is larger than that of cognitive ability, while the effect of the school’s hukou structure is the most important influencing factor. The results suggest that building a desirable school education atmosphere, alleviating hukou segregation in schools, and strengthening the integration of widely diverse school populations are important approaches to promoting educational and social equity in China.

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