The Bayesian Inference of Conformational Populations (BICePs) algorithm reconciles theoretical predictions of conformational state populations with sparse and/or noisy experimental measurements. Among its key advantages is its ability to perform objective model selection through a quantity we call the BICePs score, which reflects the integrated posterior evidence in favor of a given model, computed through free energy estimation methods. Here, we explore how the BICePs score can be used for force field validation and parametrization. Using a 2D lattice protein as a toy model, we demonstrate that BICePs is able to select the correct value of an interaction energy parameter given ensemble-averaged experimental distance measurements. We show that if conformational states are sufficiently fine-grained, the results are robust to experimental noise and measurement sparsity. Using these insights, we apply BICePs to perform force field evaluations for all-atom simulations of designed β-hairpin peptides against experimental NMR chemical shift measurements. These tests suggest that BICePs scores can be used for model selection in the context of all-atom simulations. We expect this approach to be particularly useful for the computational foldamer design as a tool for improving general-purpose force fields given sparse experimental measurements.

X-ray crystallography is the gold standard to resolve conformational ensembles that are significant for protein function, ligand discovery, and computational methods development. However, relevant conformational states may be missed at...

Hydrogen/deuterium exchange (HDX) is a powerful technique to investigate protein conformational dynamics at amino acid resolution. Because HDX provides a measurement of solvent exposure of backbone hydrogens, ensemble-averaged over potentially slow kinetic processes, it has been challenging to use HDX protection factors to refine structural ensembles obtained from molecular dynamics simulations. This entails two dual challenges: (1) identifying structural observables that best correlate with backbone amide protection from exchange, and (2) restraining these observables in molecular simulations to model ensembles consistent with experimental measurements. Here, we make significant progress on both fronts. First, we describe an improved predictor of HDX protection factors from structural observables in simulated ensembles, parameterized from ultra-long molecular dynamics simulation trajectory data, with a Bayesian inference approach used to retain the full posterior distribution of model parameters.

Water often plays a key role in protein structure, molecular recognition, and mediating protein−ligand interactions. Thus, free energy calculations must adequately sample water motions, which often proves challenging in typical MD simulation time scales. Thus, the accuracy of methods relying on MD simulations ends up limited by slow water sampling. Particularly, as a ligand is removed or modified, bulk water may not have time to fill or rearrange in the binding site. In this work, we focus on several molecular dynamics (MD) simulation-based methods attempting to help rehydrate buried water sites: BLUES, using nonequilibrium candidate Monte Carlo (NCMC); grand, using grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC); and normal MD. We assess the accuracy and efficiency of these methods in rehydrating target water sites. We selected a range of systems with varying numbers of waters in the binding site, as well as those where water occupancy is coupled to the identity or binding mode of the ligand. We analyzed the rehydration of buried water sites in binding pockets using both clustering of trajectories and direct analysis of electron density maps. Our results suggest both BLUES and grand enhance water sampling relative to normal MD and grand is more robust than BLUES, but also that water sampling remains a major challenge for all of the methods tested. The lessons we learned for these methods and systems are discussed.

The SAMPL series of challenges aim to focus the community on specific modeling challenges, while testing and hopefully driving progress of computational methods to help guide pharmaceutical drug discovery. In this study, we report on the results of the SAMPL8 host–guest blind challenge for predicting absolute binding affinities. SAMPL8 focused on two host–guest datasets, one involving the cucurbituril CB8 (with a series of common drugs of abuse) and another involving two different Gibb deep-cavity cavitands. The latter dataset involved a previously featured deep cavity cavitand (TEMOA) as well as a new variant (TEETOA), both binding to a series of relatively rigid fragment-like guests. Challenge participants employed a reasonably wide variety of methods, though many of these were based on molecular simulations, and predictive accuracy was mixed. As in some previous SAMPL iterations (SAMPL6 and SAMPL7), we found that one approach to achieve greater accuracy was to apply empirical corrections to the binding free energy predictions, taking advantage of prior data on binding to these hosts. Another approach which performed well was a hybrid MD-based approach with reweighting to a force matched QM potential. In the cavitand challenge, an alchemical method using the AMOEBA-polarizable force field achieved the best success with RMSE less than 1 kcal/mol, while another alchemical approach (ATM/GAFF2-AM1BCC/TIP3P/HREM) had RMSE less than 1.75 kcal/mol. The work discussed here also highlights several important lessons; for example, retrospective studies of reference calculations demonstrate the sensitivity of predicted binding free energies to ethyl group sampling and/or guest starting pose, providing guidance to help improve future studies on these systems.