We present a first compilation, quantification and summary of 27 seabird species presence data for north of the Arctic circle (>66 degrees latitude North) and the ice-free period (summer). For species names, we use several taxonomically valid online databases [Integrated Taxonomic Information System (ITIS), AviBase, 4 letter species codes of the American Ornithological Union (AOU), The British List 2000, taxonomic serial numbers TSNs, World Register of Marine Species (WORMS) and APHIA ID] allowing for a compatible taxonomic species cross-walk, and subsequent applications, e.g., phylogenies. Based on the data mining and machine learning RandomForest algorithm, and 26 environmental publicly available Geographic Information Systems (GIS) layers, we built 27 predictive seabird models based on public open access data archives such as the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), North Pacific Pelagic Seabird Database (NPPSD) and PIROP database (in OBIS-Seamap). Model-prediction scenarios using pseudo-absence and expert-derived absence were run; aspatial and spatial model assessment metrics were applied. Further, we used an additional species model performance metric based on the best publicly available Arctic seabird colony location datasets compiled by the authors using digital and literature sources. The obtained models perform reasonably: from poor (only a few coastal species with low samples) to very high (many pelagic species). In compliance with data policies of the International Polar Year (IPY) and similar initiatives, data and models are documented with FGDC NBII metadata and publicly available online for further improvement, sustainability applications, synergy, and intellectual explorations in times of a global biodiversity, ocean and Arctic crisis.

Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long-lived, wide-ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea-surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large-scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom-up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large-scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself.

ABSTRACT. The entire world population of the Glaucous Gull Larus hyperboreus breeds in the circumpolar Arctic. Some local populations appear to be declining significantly. In this paper, we summarize the current state of knowledge on Glaucous Gull populations and trends. The total Arctic population is estimated at 138 600 to 218 600 breeding pairs (277 200 to 437 200 breeding individuals) distributed among at least 2768 colonies (many not documented). Population declines may be attributable to egg harvest, contaminants, or food shortages, but other factors operating outside the breeding season should not be excluded. We recommend collaborative conservation efforts that will include better population estimates in most countries, as well as standardized monitoring programs.Key words: Glaucous Gull; Larus hyperboreus; Arctic; population status; population trends; monitoring; conservation concerns RÉSUMÉ. Toute la population mondiale de goélands bourgmestres Larus hyperboreus se reproduit dans l'Arctique circumpolaire. Certaines populations locales semblent diminuer considérablement. Dans cette communication, nous résumons l'état actuel des connaissances sur les populations et les tendances concernant le goéland bourgmestre. La population arctique totale est estimé de 138 600 à 218 600 couples reproducteurs (de 277 200 à 437 200 individus reproducteurs) répartis dans au moins 2 768 colonies (dont grand nombre n'ont pas été consignées). Les déclins de population peuvent être attribuables à la récolte des oeufs, aux contaminants ou aux pénuries de nourriture, bien qu'il ne faille pas exclure d'autres facteurs ne se rapportant pas à la saison de reproduction. Nous recommandons des efforts de conservation communs qui comprendront de meilleures estimations de population dans la plupart des pays de même que des programmes de surveillance normalisés.

Quaternary glaciations affected the distribution of many species. Here, we investigate whether the Arctic represented a glacial refugium during the Last Glacial Maximum or an area of secondary contact following the ice retreat, by analyzing the genetic population structure of the thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia), a seabird that breeds throughout the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Arctic Oceans. The thick-billed murre is a species of socio-economic importance and faces numerous threats including hunting, oil pollution, gill netting, and climate change. We compared variation in the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region (n = 424), supplemented by 4 microsatellite loci (n = 445), among thick-billed murres sampled throughout their range. MtDNA data indicated that colonies comprise 4 genetically differentiated groups (Φst = 0.11-0.81): 1) Atlantic Ocean plus New Siberian Islands region, 2) Cape Parry, 3) Chukchi Sea, and 4) Pacific Ocean. Microsatellite variation differed between Atlantic and Pacific populations. Otherwise, little substructure was found within either ocean. Atlantic and Pacific populations appear to have been genetically isolated since the last interglacial period and should be considered separate evolutionary significant units for management. The Chukchi Sea and Cape Parry appear to represent areas of secondary contact, rather than arctic refugial populations.

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