No abstract

The complexity of transmission of COVID-19 in the human population cannot be overstated. Although major transmission routes of COVID-19 remain as human-to-human interactions, understanding the possible role of climatic and weather processes in accelerating such interactions is still a challenge. The majority of studies on the transmission of this disease have suggested a positive association between a decrease in ambient air temperature and an increase in human cases. Using data from 19 early epicenters, we show that the relationship between the incidence of COVID-19 and temperature is a complex function of prevailing climatic conditions influencing human behavior that govern virus transmission dynamics. We note that under a dry (low-moisture) environment, notably at dew point temperatures below 0°C, the incidence of the disease was highest. Prevalence of the virus in the human population, when ambient air temperatures were higher than 24°C or lower than 17°C, was hypothesized to be a function of the interaction between humans and the built or ambient environment. An ambient air temperature range of 17 to 24°C was identified, within which virus transmission appears to decrease, leading to a reduction in COVID-19 human cases.

Climate variables influence the occurrence, growth, and distribution of Vibrio cholerae in the aquatic environment. Together with socio-economic factors, these variables affect the incidence and intensity of cholera outbreaks. The current pandemic of cholera began in the 1960s, and millions of cholera cases are reported each year globally. Hence, cholera remains a significant health challenge, notably where human vulnerability intersects with changes in hydrological and environmental processes. Cholera outbreaks may be epidemic or endemic, the mode of which is governed by trigger and transmission components that control the outbreak and spread of the disease, respectively. Traditional cholera risk assessment models, namely compartmental susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) type models, have been used to determine the predictive spread of cholera through the fecal–oral route in human populations. However, these models often fail to capture modes of infection via indirect routes, such as pathogen movement in the environment and heterogeneities relevant to disease transmission. Conversely, other models that rely solely on variability of selected environmental factors (i.e., examine only triggers) have accomplished real-time outbreak prediction but fail to capture the transmission of cholera within impacted populations. Since the mode of cholera outbreaks can transition from epidemic to endemic, a comprehensive transmission model is needed to achieve timely and reliable prediction with respect to quantitative environmental risk. Here, we discuss progression of the trigger module associated with both epidemic and endemic cholera, in the context of the autochthonous aquatic nature of the causative agent of cholera, V. cholerae, as well as disease prediction.

Pathways of transmission of coronavirus (COVID‐19) disease in the human population are still emerging. However, empirical observations suggest that dense human settlements are the most adversely impacted, corroborating a broad consensus that human‐to‐human transmission is a key mechanism for the rapid spread of this disease. Here, using logistic regression techniques, estimates of threshold levels of population density were computed corresponding to the incidence (case counts) in the human population. Regions with population densities greater than 3000 person per square mile in the United States have about 95% likelihood to report 43380 number of average cumulative cases of COVID‐19. Since case numbers of COVID‐19 dynamically changed each day until November 30, 2020, ca. 4% of US counties were at 50% or higher probability to 38232 number of COVID‐19 cases .. While threshold on population density is not the sole indicator for predictability of coronavirus in human population, yet it is one of the key variables on understanding and rethinking human settlement in urban landscapes.

The severity of hurricanes, and thus the associated impacts, is changing over time. One of the understudied threats from damage caused by hurricanes is the potential for cross-contamination of water bodies with pathogens in coastal agricultural regions. Using microbiological data collected after hurricanes Florence and Michael, this study shows a dichotomy in the presence of pathogens in coastal North Carolina and Florida. Salmonella typhimurium was abundant in water samples collected in the regions dominated by swine farms. A drastic decrease in Enterococcus spp. in Carolinas is indicative of pathogen removal with flooding waters. Except for the abundance presence of Salmonella typhimurium, no significant changes in pathogens were observed after Hurricane Michael in the Florida panhandle. We argue that a comprehensive assessment of pathogens must be included in decision-making activities in the immediate aftermath of hurricanes to build resilience against risks of pathogenic exposure in rural agricultural and human populations in vulnerable locations.