Background: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related deaths in both men and women in the United States, and it has a much lower five-year survival rate than many other cancers. Accurate survival analysis is urgently needed for better disease diagnosis and treatment management. Results: In this work, we propose a survival analysis system that takes advantage of recently emerging deep learning techniques. The proposed system consists of three major components. 1) The first component is an end-to-end cellular feature learning module using a deep neural network with global average pooling. The learned cellular representations encode high-level biologically relevant information without requiring individual cell segmentation, which is aggregated into patient-level feature vectors by using a locality-constrained linear coding (LLC)-based bag of words (BoW) encoding algorithm. 2) The second component is a Cox proportional hazards model with an elastic net penalty for robust feature selection and survival analysis.3) The third commponent is a biomarker interpretation module that can help localize the image regions that contribute to the survival model's decision. Extensive experiments show that the proposed survival model has excellent predictive power for a public (i.e., The Cancer Genome Atlas) lung cancer dataset in terms of two commonly used metrics: log-rank test (p-value) of the Kaplan-Meier estimate and concordance index (c-index). Conclusions: In this work, we have proposed a segmentation-free survival analysis system that takes advantage of the recently emerging deep learning framework and well-studied survival analysis methods such as the Cox proportional hazards model. In addition, we provide an approach to visualize the discovered biomarkers, which can serve as concrete evidence supporting the survival model's decision.

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Introduction Programmed cell death ligand-1 (PD-L1) expression is a promising biomarker for identifying treatment related to non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Automated image analysis served as an aided PD-L1 scoring tool for pathologists to reduce inter- and intrareader variability. We developed a novel automated tumor proportion scoring (TPS) algorithm, and evaluated the concordance of this image analysis algorithm with pathologist scores. Methods We included 230 NSCLC samples prepared and stained using the PD-L1(SP263) and PD-L1(22C3) antibodies separately. The scoring algorithm was based on regional segmentation and cellular detection. We used 30 PD-L1(SP263) slides for algorithm training and validation. Results Overall, 192 SP263 samples and 117 22C3 samples were amenable to image analysis scoring. Automated image analysis and pathologist scores were highly concordant [intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) = 0.873 and 0.737]. Concordances at moderate and high cutoff values were better than at low cutoff values significantly. For SP263 and 22C3, the concordances in squamous cell carcinomas were better than adenocarcinomas (SP263 ICC = 0.884 vs 0.783; 22C3 ICC = 0.782 vs 0.500). In addition, our automated immune cell proportion scoring (IPS) scores achieved high positive correlation with the pathologists TPS scores. Conclusions The novel automated image analysis scoring algorithm permitted quantitative comparison with existing PD-L1 diagnostic assays and demonstrated effectiveness by combining cellular and regional information for image algorithm training. Meanwhile, the fact that concordances vary in different subtypes of NSCLC samples, which should be considered in algorithm development.

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