Vegetation composition shifts, and in particular, shrub expansion across the Arctic tundra are some of the most important and widely observed responses of high-latitude ecosystems to rapid climate warming. These changes in vegetation potentially alter ecosystem carbon balances by affecting a complex set of soil–plant–atmosphere interactions. In this review, we synthesize the literature on (a) observed shrub expansion, (b) key climatic and environmental controls and mechanisms that affect shrub expansion, (c) impacts of shrub expansion on ecosystem carbon balance, and (d) research gaps and future directions to improve process representations in land models. A broad range of evidence, including in-situ observations, warming experiments, and remotely sensed vegetation indices have shown increases in growth and abundance of woody plants, particularly tall deciduous shrubs, and advancing shrublines across the circumpolar Arctic. This recent shrub expansion is affected by several interacting factors including climate warming, accelerated nutrient cycling, changing disturbance regimes, and local variation in topography and hydrology. Under warmer conditions, tall deciduous shrubs can be more competitive than other plant functional types in tundra ecosystems because of their taller maximum canopy heights and often dense canopy structure. Competitive abilities of tall deciduous shrubs vs herbaceous plants are also controlled by variation in traits that affect carbon and nutrient investments and retention strategies in leaves, stems, and roots. Overall, shrub expansion may affect tundra carbon balances by enhancing ecosystem carbon uptake and altering ecosystem respiration, and through complex feedback mechanisms that affect snowpack dynamics, permafrost degradation, surface energy balance, and litter inputs. Observed and projected tall deciduous shrub expansion and the subsequent effects on surface energy and carbon balances may alter feedbacks to the climate system. Land models, including those integrated in Earth System Models, need to account for differences in plant traits that control competitive interactions to accurately predict decadal- to centennial-scale tundra vegetation and carbon dynamics.

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High-latitude regions have experienced rapid warming in recent decades, and this trend is projected to continue over the twenty-first century 1. Fire is also projected to increase with warming 2,3. We show here, consistent with changes during the Holocene 4 , that changes in twenty-first century climate and fire are likely to alter the composition of Alaskan boreal forests. We hypothesize that competition for nutrients after fire in early succession and for light in late succession in a warmer climate will cause shifts in plant functional type. Consistent with observations, our ecosystem model predicts evergreen conifers to be the current dominant tree type in Alaska. However, under future climate and fire, our analysis suggests the relative dominance of deciduous broadleaf trees nearly doubles, accounting for 58% of the Alaska ecosystem's net primary productivity by 2100, with commensurate declines in contributions from evergreen conifer trees and herbaceous plants. Post-fire deciduous broadleaf tree growth under a future climate is sustained from enhanced microbial nitrogen mineralization caused by warmer soils and deeper active layers, resulting in taller trees that compete more effectively for light. The expansion of deciduous broadleaf forests will affect the carbon cycle, surface energy fluxes and ecosystem function, thereby modifying important feedbacks with the climate system. Main High-latitude warming during the twenty-first century increases the potential for changes in vegetation growth, decomposition of soil organic matter and net ecosystem carbon balance 5 , which in turn may contribute to feedbacks with the climate system 1,6. Potential transitions between deciduous and evergreen vegetation 7,8,9 are of considerable interest because they are uncertain in current projections and fundamentally change ecosystem carbon dynamics, energy budgets, regional water balance, fire regimes, wildlife habitat and ecosystem services. Palaeoecological studies of the Holocene suggest that Alaskan forests have undergone shifts in dominant

Microtopographic variation that develops among features (troughs, rims, and centers) within polygonal landforms of coastal arctic tundra strongly affects movement of surface water and snow and thereby affects soil water contents (θ) and active layer depth (ALD). Spatial variation in ALD among these features may exceed interannual variation in ALD caused by changes in climate and so needs to be represented in projections of changes in arctic ALD. In this study, increases in near‐surface θ with decreasing surface elevation among polygon features at the Barrow Experimental Observatory (BEO) were modeled from topographic effects on redistribution of surface water and snow and from lateral water exchange with a subsurface water table during a model run from 1981 to 2015. These increases in θ caused increases in thermal conductivity that in turn caused increases in soil heat fluxes and hence in ALD of up to 15 cm with lower versus higher surface elevation which were consistent with increases measured at BEO. The modeled effects of θ caused interannual variation in maximum ALD that compared well with measurements from 1985 to 2015 at the Barrow Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) site (R2 = 0.61, RMSE = 0.03 m). For higher polygon features, interannual variation in ALD was more closely associated with annual precipitation than mean annual temperature, indicating that soil wetting from increases in precipitation may hasten permafrost degradation beyond that caused by soil warming from increases in air temperature. This degradation may be more rapid if increases in precipitation cause sustained wetting in higher features.

Differences of surface elevation in arctic polygonal landforms cause spatial variation in soil water contents (θ), active layer depths (ALD), and thereby in CO2 and CH4 exchange. Here we test hypotheses in ecosys for topographic controls on CO2 and CH4 exchange in trough, rim, and center features of low‐ and flat‐centered polygons (LCP and FCP) against chamber and eddy covariance (EC) measurements during 2013 at Barrow, Alaska. Larger CO2 influxes and CH4 effluxes were measured with chambers and modeled with ecosys in LCPs than in FCPs and in lower features (troughs) than in higher (rims) within LCPs and FCPs. Spatially aggregated CO2 and CH4 fluxes from ecosys were significantly correlated with EC flux measurements. Lower features were modeled as C sinks (52–56 g C m−2 yr−1) and CH4 sources (4–6 g C m−2 yr−1), and higher features as near C neutral (−2–15 g C m−2 yr−1) and CH4 neutral (0.0–0.1 g C m−2 yr−1). Much of the spatial and temporal variations in CO2 and CH4 fluxes were modeled from topographic effects on water and snow movement and thereby on θ, ALD, and soil O2 concentrations. Model results forced with meteorological data from 1981 to 2015 indicated increasing net primary productivity in higher features and CH4 emissions in some lower and higher features since 2008, attributed mostly to recent rises in precipitation. Small‐scale variation in surface elevation causes large spatial variation of greenhouse gas (GHG) exchanges and therefore should be considered in estimates of GHG exchange in polygonal landscapes.