Abstract. Competition for water between humans and ecosystems is set to become a flash point in the coming decades in many parts of the world. An entirely new and comprehensive quantitative framework is needed to establish a holistic understanding of that competition, thereby enabling the development of effective mediation strategies. This paper presents a modeling study centered on the Murrumbidgee River basin (MRB). The MRB has witnessed a unique system dynamics over the last 100 years as a result of interactions between patterns of water management and climate driven hydrological variability. Data analysis has revealed a pendulum swing between agricultural development and restoration of environmental health and ecosystem services over different stages of basin-scale water resource development. A parsimonious, stylized, quasi-distributed coupled socio-hydrologic system model that simulates the twoway coupling between human and hydrological systems of the MRB is used to mimic and explain dominant features of the pendulum swing. The model consists of coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations that describe the interaction between five state variables that govern the co-evolution: reservoir storage, irrigated area, human population, ecosystem health, and environmental awareness. The model simulations track the propagation of the external climatic and socio-economic drivers through this coupled, complex system to the emergence of the pendulum swing. The model results point to a competition between human "productive" and environmental "restorative" forces that underpin the pendulum swing. Both the forces are endogenous, i.e., generated by the system dynamics in response to external drivers and mediated by humans through technology change and environmental awareness, respectively. Sensitivity analysis carried out with the model further reveals that socio-hydrologic modeling can be used as a tool to explain or gain insight into observed co-evolutionary dynamics of diverse human-water coupled systems. This paper therefore contributes to the ultimate development of a generic modeling framework that can be applied to human-water coupled systems in different climatic and socio-economic settings.

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[1] The momentum budget of the migrating diurnal tide (DW1) at the vernal equinox is studied using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 4 (WACCM4). Classical tidal theory provides an appropriate first-order prediction of the DW1 structure, while gravity wave (GW) forcing and advection are the two most dominant terms in the momentum equation that account for the discrepancies between classical tidal theory and the calculation based on the full primitive equations. It differs from the conclusion by McLandress (2002a) that the parameterized GW effect is substantially weaker than advection terms based on the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM). In the region where DW1 maintains a large amplitude, GW forcing in the wave breaking region always damps DW1 and advances its phase. The linear advection largely determined by the latitudinal shear of the zonal mean zonal wind makes a dominant contribution to the phase change of DW1 in the zonal wind compared to the GW forcing and nonlinear advection. However, nonlinear advection is more important than GW forcing and linear advection in modulating the amplitude and phase of DW1 in the meridional wind. The DW1 amplitudes in temperature and winds are smaller than the TIMED observations, suggesting that GW forcing is overestimated in the WACCM4 and results in a large damping of DW1.

Abstract.This paper discusses the techniques used to hand-parallelize, for the Alliant FX/80, four Fortran programs from the Perfect-Benchmark suite. The paper also includes the execution times of the programs before and after the transformations. The four programs considered here were not effectively parallelized by the automatic translators available to the authors. However, most of the techniques used for hand parallelization, and perhaps all of them, have wide applicability and can be incorporated into existing translators.