A prognostic index to predict survival after liver transplantation could address several clinical needs. Here, we devised a scoring system that predicts recipient survival after pediatric liver transplantation. We used univariate and multivariate analysis on 4565 pediatric liver transplant recipients data and identified independent recipient and donor risk factors for posttransplant mortality at 3 months. Multiple imputation was used to account for missing variables. We identified five factors as significant predictors of recipient mortality after pediatric liver transplantation: two previous transplants (OR 5.88, CI 2.88–12.01), one previous transplant (OR 2.54, CI 1.75–3.68), life support (OR 3.68, CI 2.39–5.67), renal insufficiency (OR 2.66, CI 1.84–3.84), recipient weight under 6 kilograms (OR 1.67, CI 1.12–2.36) and cadaveric technical variant allograft (OR 1.38, CI 1.03–1.83). The Survival Outcomes Following Pediatric Liver Transplant score assigns weighted risk points to each of these factors in a scoring system to predict 3‐month recipient survival after liver transplantation with a C‐statistic of 0.74. Although quite accurate when compared with other posttransplant survival models, we would not advocate individual clinical application of the index.
Careful management of immunosuppression is paramount to prevent acute rejection in kidney transplantation. We studied a cohort of 139,875 kidney transplant recipients from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) database between 2002 and 2013. We confirmed the analysis with a cohort of 35,277 who received thymoglobulin induction with tacrolimus maintenance, and a third cohort of 12,161 recipients who received basiliximab induction with tacrolimus maintenance. We performed multivariate logistic regression analyses on data from all three cohorts and identified independent risk factors for treated acute rejection at 1 year. Recipient age was a robust risk factor for rejection in all three cohorts in a dose response pattern. Young age (18-25 years) was among the strongest risk factors for rejection in all three cohorts; thymoglobulin cohort: OR 1.87 (1.59-2.19); basiliximab cohort: OR 2.41 (1.89-3.05); and inclusive cohort: OR 1.97 (1.83-2.12). The opposite was true for old age (65-69 years); thymoglobulin cohort: OR 0.69 (0.59-0.81); basiliximab cohort: OR 0.77 (0.62-0.96); and inclusive cohort: OR 0.75 (0.70-0.80). This study is unique because it is the largest and most comprehensive multivariate analysis that demonstrates recipient age is a robust risk factor for acute rejection in an inverse dose response pattern.
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