The building sector accounts for nearly 40% of total primary energy consumption in the U.S. and E.U. and 20% of worldwide delivered energy consumption. Climate projections predict an increase of average annual temperatures between 1.1–5.4 °C by 2100. As urbanization is expected to continue increasing at a rapid pace, the energy consumption of buildings is likely to play a pivotal role in the overall energy budget. In this study, we used EnergyPlus building energy models to estimate the future energy demands of commercial buildings in Salt Lake County, Utah, USA, using locally-derived climate projections. We found significant variability in the energy demand profiles when simulating the study buildings under different climate scenarios, based on the energy standard the building was designed to meet, with reductions ranging from 10% to 60% in natural gas consumption for heating and increases ranging from 10% to 30% in electricity consumption for cooling. A case study, using projected 2040 building stock, showed a weighted average decrease in heating energy of 25% and an increase of 15% in cooling energy. We also found that building standards between ASHRAE 90.1-2004 and 90.1-2016 play a comparatively smaller role than variation in climate scenarios on the energy demand variability within building types. Our findings underscore the large range of potential future building energy consumption which depends on climatic conditions, as well as building types and standards.
Electricity generation emission factors (EGEF) quantify the relationship between an emitted pollutant and the amount of electricity generated. Quantifying the variability among calculated EGEF is important when EGEFs are used to inform decision-making for environmental sustainability.First, variabilities in EGEF due to variability in the amount of coal, natural gas, and petroleum emissions within the fuel mix are quantified for California, Texas, and New York in 2017. The results show a higher coefficient of variation for SO2 and NOx compared to CO2 EGEF.Next, changes in the EGEF over time are studied using decomposition analysis for California, Texas, and New York from 1990 to 2017. The results show that the main factor in reducing EGEF in California is the improvement in the generation efficiency of power plants; in Texas, it is the increase in the ratio of renewable to non-renewable electricity generation; and in New York, it is the change in the mix of fossil fuels that are consumed for electricity generation.Finally, the effect of variability of EGEF on environmental impact categories is analyzed. Eutrophication of air, eutrophication of water, and smog formation are subject to high uncertainty because SO2 and NOx EGEFs are used to quantify these impacts, whereas global warming potential has less uncertainty because it only uses CO2 EGEF.
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