No abstract

Although the Trans-Himalayan region (THR) is an important endemic and rendezvous area of peste des petits ruminants (PPR), monitoring and prevention measurements are difficult to execute because of the rough geographical conditions. Besides, a heterogeneous breeding system and the poor veterinary service of susceptible animals compound the existing problems. Here, we propose a forecasting system to define the key points of PPR prevention and aid the countries in saving time, labor, and products to achieve the goal of the global eradication project of PPR. The spatial distribution of PPR was predicted in the THR for the first time using a niche model that was constructed with a combination of eco-geographical, anthropoid, meteorological, and host variables. The transboundary least-cost paths (LCPs) of small ruminants in the THR were also calculated. Our results reveal that the low-elevation area of the THR had a higher PPR risk and was mainly dominated by human variables. The high-elevation area had lower risk and was mainly dominated by natural variables. Eight LCPs representing corridors among India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and China were obtained. This confirmed the potential risk of transboundary communication by relying on PPR contamination on the grasslands for the first time. The predicted potential risk communication between the two livestock systems and landscapes (high and low elevation) might play a role in driving PPR transboundary transmission.

African horse sickness (AHS) is a devastating equine infectious disease. On 17 March 2020, it first appeared in Thailand and threatened all the South-East Asia equine industry security. Therefore, it is imperative to carry out risk warnings of the AHS in China. The maximum entropy algorithm was used to model AHS and Culicoides separately by using climate and non-climate variables. The least cost path (LCP) method was used to analyze the habitat connectivity of Culicoides with the reclassified land cover and altitude as cost factors. The models showed the mean area under the curve as 0.918 and 0.964 for AHS and Culicoides. The prediction result map shows that there is a high risk area in the southern part of China while the habitats of the Culicoides are connected to each other. Therefore, the risk of introducing AHS into China is high and control of the border area should be strengthened immediately.