The multifaceted destructions caused by COVID-19 have been compared to that of World War II. What makes the situation even more complicated is the ambiguity about the duration and ultimate spread of the pandemic. It is especially critical for the governments, healthcare systems, and economic sectors to have an estimate of the future of this disaster. By using different mathematical approaches, including the classical susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and its derivatives, many investigators have tried to predict the outbreak of COVID-19. In this study, we simulated the epidemic in Isfahan province of Iran for the period from Feb 14th to April 11th and also forecasted the remaining course with three scenarios that differed in terms of the stringency level of social distancing. Despite the prediction of disease course in short-term intervals, the constructed SIR model was unable to forecast the actual spread and pattern of epidemic in the long term. Remarkably, most of the published SIR models developed to predict COVID-19 for other communities, suffered from the same inconformity. The SIR models are based on assumptions that seem not to be true in the case of the COVID-19 epidemic. Hence, more sophisticated modeling strategies and detailed knowledge of the biomedical and epidemiological aspects of the disease are needed to forecast the pandemic.

Fibroblasts as key components of tumor microenvironment show different features in the interaction with cancer cells. Although, Normal fibroblasts demonstrate anti-tumor effects, cancer associated fibroblasts are principal participant in tumor growth and invasion. The ambiguity of fibroblasts function can be regarded as two heads of its behavioral spectrum and can be subjected for mathematical modeling to identify their switching behavior. In this research, an agent-based model of mutual interactions between fibroblast and cancer cell was created. The proposed model is based on nonlinear differential equations which describes biochemical reactions of the main factors involved in fibroblasts and cancer cells communication. Also, most of the model parameters are estimated using hybrid unscented Kalman filter. The interactions between two cell types are illustrated by the dynamic modeling of TGFβ and LIF pathways as well as their crosstalk. Using analytical and computational approaches, reciprocal effects of cancer cells and fibroblasts are constructed and the role of signaling molecules in tumor progression or prevention are determined. Finally, the model is validated using a set of experimental data. The proposed dynamic modeling might be useful for designing more efficient therapies in cancer metastasis treatment and prevention.

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Background:Mathematical modeling of biological systems is an attractive way for studying complex biological systems and their behaviors. Petri Nets, due to their ability to model systems with various levels of qualitative information, have been wildly used in modeling biological systems in which enough qualitative data may not be at disposal. These nets have been used to answer questions regarding the dynamics of different cell behaviors including the translation process. In one stage of the translation process, the RNA sequence may be degraded. In the process of degradation of RNA sequence, small-noncoding RNA molecules known as small interfering RNA (siRNA) match the target RNA sequence. As a result of this matching, the target RNA sequence is destroyed.Materials and Methods:In this context, the process of matching and destruction is modeled using Colored Petri Nets (CPNs). The model is constructed using CPNs which allow tokens to have a value or type on them. Thus, CPN is a suitable tool to model string structures in which each element of the string has a different type. Using CPNs, long RNA, and siRNA strings are modeled with a finite set of colors. The model is simulated via CPN Tools.Results:A CPN model of the matching between RNA and siRNA strings is constructed in CPN Tools environment.Conclusion:In previous studies, a network of stoichiometric equations was modeled. However, in this particular study, we modeled the mechanism behind the silencing process. Modeling this kind of mechanisms provides us with a tool to examine the effects of different factors such as mutation or drugs on the process.

Metastasis is the pathogenic spread of cancer cells from a primary tumor to a secondary site which happens at the late stages of cancer. It is caused by a variety of biological, chemical, and physical processes, such as molecular interactions, intercellular communications, and tissue-level activities. Complex interactions of cancer cells with their microenvironment components such as cancer associated fibroblasts (CAFs) and extracellular matrix (ECM) cause them to adopt an invasive phenotype that promotes tumor growth and migration. This paper presents a multiscale model for integrating a wide range of time and space interactions at the molecular, cellular, and tissue levels in a three-dimensional domain. The modeling procedure starts with presenting nonlinear dynamics of cancer cells and CAFs using ordinary differential equations based on TGFβ, CXCL12, and LIF signaling pathways. Unknown kinetic parameters in these models are estimated using hybrid unscented Kalman filter and the models are validated using experimental data. Then, the principal role of CAFs on metastasis is revealed by spatial–temporal modeling of circulating signals throughout the TME. At this stage, the model has evolved into a coupled ODE–PDE system that is capable of determining cancer cells’ status in one of the quiescent, proliferating or migratory conditions due to certain metastasis factors and ECM characteristics. At the tissue level, we consider a force-based framework to model the cancer cell proliferation and migration as the final step towards cancer cell metastasis. The ability of the multiscale model to depict cancer cells’ behavior in different levels of modeling is confirmed by comparing its outputs with the results of RT PCR and wound scratch assay techniques. Performance evaluation of the model indicates that the proposed multiscale model can pave the way for improving the efficiency of therapeutic methods in metastasis prevention.