To evaluate the achievements of China's immunization program between 1950 and 2018, we chose 11 vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) as representative notifiable diseases and used annual surveillance data obtained between 1950 and 2018 to derive disease incidence and mortality trends. Quasi-Poisson and polynomial regression models were used to estimate the impacts of specific vaccine programs, and life-table methods were used to calculate the loss of life expectancy, years of life lost, and loss of working years. The total notification number for the 11 VPDs was 211,866,000 from 1950 to 2018. The greatest number occurred in 1959, with a total incidence of 1,723 per million persons. From 1978 to 2018, a substantial decline was observed in the incidence of major infectious diseases. The incidence of pertussis fell 98% from 126.35 to 1.58 per million, and the incidences of measles, meningococcal meningitis, and Japanese encephalitis fell 99%, 99%, and 98%, respectively. The regression models showed that most of the 11 diseases exhibited dramatic declines in morbidity after their integration into the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI), while varicella and paratyphoid fever, which were not integrated into the EPI, showed increased morbidity. From 1978 to 2018, the total life expectancy for the 11 VPDs increased by 0.79 years, and similar results were obtained for different age groups. China has had great success in controlling VPDs in recent decades, and improving vaccination coverage is a key aspect of controlling VPDs in China.

We conducted a matched retrospective cohort study of two cohorts to estimate inactivated vaccine effectiveness (VE) and its comparative effectiveness of booster dose among older people in Shanghai. Cohort 1 consisted of a vaccinated group (≥1 dose) and an unvaccinated group (3,317,475 pairs), and cohort 2 consisted of a booster vaccinated group and a fully vaccinated group (2,084,721 pairs). The Kaplan–Meier method and Cox regression models were used to estimate risk and hazard ratios (HRs) study outcomes. For cohort 1, the overall estimated VEs of ≥1 dose of inactivated vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 infection, severe/critical Covid-19, and Covid-19 related death were 24.7% (95%CI 23.7%−25.7%), 86.6% (83.1%−89.4%), and 93.2% (88.0%−96.1%), respectively. Subset analysis showed that the booster vaccination provided greatest protection. For cohort 2, compared with full vaccination, relative VEs of booster dose against corresponding outcome were 16.3% (14.4%−17.9%), 60.5% (37.8%−74.9%), and 81.7% (17.5%−95.9%). Here we show, although under the scenario of persistent dynamic zero-Covid policy and non-pharmaceutical interventions, promoting high uptake of the full vaccination series and booster dose among older adults is critically important. Timely vaccination with the booster dose provided effective protection against Covid-19 outcomes.

Background There is limited evidence supporting a relationship of ambient particulate matter (PM), especially PM1, with hospital admissions, hospital costs, and length of hospital stay (LOS) due to cardiovascular disease (CVD). We used a generalized additive model (GAM) to estimate the associations of these indicators due to CVD for each 10 μg/m3 increase in the level of PM1, PM2.5, and PM10, and the attributable risk caused by PM on CVD was determined using the WHO air quality guidelines from 2005 and 2021. Results For each 10 μg/m3 increase in the level of each PM and for a 0-day lag time, there were significant increases in daily hospital admissions for CVD (PM1: 1.006% [95% CI 0.859, 1.153]; PM2.5: 0.454% [95% CI 0.377, 0.530]; PM10: 0.263% [95% CI 0.206, 0.320]) and greater daily hospital costs for CVD (PM1: 523.135 thousand CNY [95% CI 253.111, 793.158]; PM2.5: 247.051 thousand CNY [95% CI 106.766, 387.336]; PM10: 141.284 thousand CNY [95% CI 36.195, 246.373]). There were no significant associations between PM and daily LOS. Stratified analyses demonstrated stronger effects in young people and males for daily hospital admissions, and stronger effects in the elderly and males for daily hospital costs. Daily hospital admissions increased linearly with PM concentration up to about 30 µg/m3 (PM1), 60 µg/m3 (PM2.5), and 90 µg/m3 (PM10), with slower increases at higher concentrations. Daily hospital costs had an approximately linear increase with PM concentration at all tested concentrations. In general, hospital admissions, hospital costs, and LOS due to CVD were greater for PM2.5 than PM10, and the more stringent 2021 WHO guidelines indicated greater admissions, costs, and LOS due to CVD. Conclusions Short-term elevation of PM of different sizes was associated with an increased risk of hospital admissions and hospital costs due to CVD. The relationship with hospital admissions was strongest for men and young individuals, and the relationship with hospital costs was strongest for men and the elderly. Smaller PM is associated with greater risk.

Background Tuberculosis (TB) has a serious impact on people’s health. China is one of 30 countries that has a high TB burden. As the currently decreasing speed of the incidence of TB, the WHO’s goal of “End TB Strategy” is hard to achieve by 2035. As a result, a SEIR model that determines the impact of different tuberculosis preventive treatments (TPTs) in different age groups, and the effect of different interventions on latent TB infections (LTBIs) in China is developed. Methods A Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model was established. Goodness-of-fit tests were used to assess model performance. Predictive analysis was used to assess the effect of different interventions on LTBIs and achieving the goals of the “End TB Strategy”. Results The Chi-square test indicated the model provided a good statistical fit to previous data on the incidence of TB (χ2 = 0.3085, p > 0.999). The 1HP treatment regimen (daily rifapentine + isoniazid for 4 weeks) was most effective in reducing the number of TB cases by 2035. The model indicated that several strategies could achieve the 2035 target of the “End TB Strategy”: completion of active case finding (ACF) for LTBI and TPT nation-wide within 5 years; completion of ACF for LTBIs and TPT within 2 years in high-incidence areas; completion of TPT in the elderly within 2 years; or introduction of a new vaccine in which the product of annual doses and vaccine efficiency in the three age groups above 14 years old reached 10.5 million. Conclusion The incidence of TB in China declined gradually from 2005 to 2019. Implementation of ACF for LTBIs and TPT nation-wide or in areas with high incidence, in the elderly, or administration of a new and effective vaccine could greatly reduce the number of TB cases and achieve the 2035 target of the “End TB Strategy” in China.

Background From 20 July to 26 August 2021, local outbreaks of COVID-19 occurred in Nanjing City and Yangzhou City (Jiangsu Province, China). We analyzed the characteristics of these outbreaks in an effort to develop specific and effective intervention strategies. Methods Publicly available data on the characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreaks in Jiangsu Province were collected. Logistic regression was used to assess the association of age and sex with clinical severity. Analysis of onset dates, generation time distributions, and locations were used to estimate the mean transmission distance. A branching process model was used to evaluate different management strategies. Results From 20 July to 26 August 2021, 820 patients were diagnosed with COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province, with 235 patients (28.7%) from Nanjing, 570 (69.5%) from Yangzhou, and 15 (1.8%) from other cities. Overall, 57.9% of the patients were female, 13.7% were under 20 years-old, and 58.3% had moderate disease status. The mean transmission distance was 4.12 km, and closed-loop management of the area within 2.23 km of cases seemed sufficient to control an outbreak. The model predicted that the cumulative cases in Yangzhou would increase from 311 to 642 if the interval between rounds of nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) increased from 1 to 6 days. It also predicted there would be 44.7% more patients if the NAAT started 10 days (rather than 0 days) after diagnosis of the first case. The proportion of cases detected by NAAT would increase from 11.16 to 44.12% when the rounds of NAAT increased from 1 to 7 within 17 days. When the effective vaccine coverage was 50%, the outbreak would be controlled even when using the most relaxed non-pharmaceutical interventions. Conclusions The model predicted that a timely closed-loop management of a 2.23 km area around positive COVID-19 cases was sufficient to control the outbreak. Prompt serial NAAT is likely to contain an outbreak quickly, and our model results indicated that three rounds of NAAT sufficiently controlled local transmission. Trial registration We did not involve clinical trial.