In urban systems modeling, there are many elaborate dynamic models based on intricate decision processes whose simulation must be based on customized software if their space±time properties are to be explored eectively. In this paper we present a class of urban models whose dynamics are based on theories of development associated with cellular automata (CA), whose data is ®ne-grained, and whose simulation requires software which can handle an enormous array of spatial and temporal model outputs. We ®rst introduce the generic problem of modeling within GIS, noting relevant CA models before outlining a generalized model based on Xie's (1996, A general model for cellular urban dynamics. Geographical Analysis, 28, 350±373)``dynamic urban evolutionary modeling'' (DUEM) approach. We present ways in which land uses are structured through their life cycles, and ways in which existing urban activities spawn locations for new activities. We de®ne various decision rules that embed distance and direction, density thresholds, and transition or mutation probabilities into the model's dynamics, and we then outline the software designed to generate eective urban simulations consistent with GIS data inputs, outputs and related functionality. Finally, we present a range of hypothetical urban simulations that illustrate the diversity of model types that can be handled within the framework as a prelude to more realistic applications which will be reported in later papers. # 1999 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Various tools and methods are used in participatory modelling, at different stages of the process and for different purposes. The diversity of tools and methods can create challenges for stakeholders and modelers when selecting the ones most appropriate for their projects. We offer a systematic overview, assessment, and categorization of methods to assist modelers and stakeholders with their choices and decisions. Most available literature provides little justification or information on the reasons for the use of particular methods or tools in a given study. In most of the cases, it seems that the prior experience and skills of the modelers had a dominant effect on the selection of the methods used. While we have not found any real evidence of this approach being wrong, we do think that putting more thought into the method selection process and choosing the most appropriate method for the project can produce better results. Based on expert opinion and a survey of modelers engaged in participatory processes, we offer practical guidelines to improve decisions about method selection at different stages of the participatory modeling process.
The proliferation of agent-based models (ABMs) in recent decades has motivated model practitioners to improve the transparency, replicability, and trust in results derived from ABMs. The complexity of ABMs has risen in stride with advances in computing power and resources, resulting in larger models with complex interactions and learning and whose outputs are often high-dimensional and require sophisticated analytical approaches. Similarly, the increasing use of data and dynamics in ABMs has further enhanced the complexity of their outputs. In this article, we offer an overview of the state-of-the-art approaches in analysing and reporting ABM outputs highlighting challenges and outstanding issues. In particular, we examine issues surrounding variance stability (in connection with determination of appropriate number of runs and hypothesis testing), sensitivity analysis, spatio-temporal analysis, visualization, and effective communication of all these to non-technical audiences, such as various stakeholders.
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