This paper aims to study the safe haven attribute of the Japanese yen under
domestic and U.S. economic and policy uncertainty (EPU). Because of the
existence of structural changes, a bootstrap rolling window subsample
causality test is used to enhance the credibility of the results. The
empirical results confirm that the exchange rate returns (RER) and Japanese
EPU are correlated in specific periods when major economic or political
events occur. In most crisis periods, the Japanese EPU has positive effects
on RER, and the yen appreciates when the EPU is increasing. In addition, the
RER of the yen and U.S. EPU are both negatively and positively connected.
This finding confirms the hedging function of the yen in certain periods.
The reason for this relationship is that Japan's low interest rates make the
yen the primary funding currency in speculative carrying trade strategies,
and thus, it tends to appreciate during crisis periods regardless of the
origins of the EPU shocks. Therefore, the yen can be held as a safe haven
currency unless the government intervenes artificially.
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