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In this study, a fuzzy bi-level chance constraint programming (FBCP) model is developed for urban ecological management in Xiamen, China. FBCP has advantages in balancing trade-offs between multiple decision makers and can address fuzzy and stochastic uncertainty in ecosystem management. It also can reflect the impact of different violation risk levels and emission reduction measures on system benefit, ecosystem service value, and land resource allocation. Then, the conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent (CLUE-S) model is employed to provide the spatial allocation of future land resources under different scenarios. Results reveal that (i) carbon fixation and climate regulation are the major contributors to the ecosystem service value, with a proportion of [15.4, 15.6]% and [18.5, 18.8]%, respectively; (ii) the main environmental problem in Xiamen is the water pollution caused by the excessive discharge of commercial and residential land, with COD and NH3-N account for [68.81, 69.33]% and [67.65, 68.20]% of the total discharge of the city, respectively; (iii) the violation risk p level is the most impact factor, and the schemes with high system benefit would face greater default risk and lower ecological quality; (iv) FBCP model considers the trade-off between economic benefit and ecological quality, while the fuzzy chance constraint programming (FCP) model achieves a high system benefit at the expense of the environment. These findings help decision makers to understand the impact of parameter uncertainty and pollutant discharge policies on system benefit, and adjust land-use patterns to weigh ecological environment protection with urban economic development.

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