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A typical aircraft panel is the assembly consisting of a multitude of thin and lightweight compliant parts. In panel assembly process, part-to-part locating scheme has been widely adopted in order to reduce fixtures. By this locating scheme, a part is located onto the pre-fixed part/subassembly by determinant assembly (DA) holes, and temporary fasteners (e.g., spring pin) are used for joining these DA hole-hole pairs. The temporary fasteners can fasten DA hole-hole pairs in the axial and radial directions of DA holes. The fastening in the radial directions is realized by the expansion of temporary fasteners. Although the usage of temporary fasteners helps reduce the positional differences between hole-hole pairs, their clamping forces thereby may lead to elastic deformation of compliant parts/subassemblies. Limited research has been conducted on such elastic deformation produced by temporary fastener and its influence on assembly dimensional quality. This paper proposes a novel rigid-compliant variation analysis method for aircraft panel assembly, incorporating the deformation in part-to-part locating process. Based on the kinematic theory and linear elasticity deformation assumption, the variation propagation through the locating process, as well as the entire assembly process of an aircraft panel, is formulated. Then, the statistical variation analysis is performed with Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. Finally, the proposed method is validated by a case study. The result shows the deformation in the part-to-part locating process significantly impacts the assembly variations, and our method can provide a more accurate and reliable prediction.