Dengue fever is one of the most common vector-borne diseases in the world and is mainly affected by the interaction of meteorological, human and land-use factors. This study aims to identify the impact of meteorological, human and land-use factors on dengue fever cases, involving the interplay between multiple factors. The analyses identified the statistically significant determinants affecting the transmission of dengue fever, employing cross-correlation analysis and the geo-detector model. This study was conducted in Guangzhou, China, using the data of confirmed cases of dengue fever, daily meteorological records, population density distribution and land-use distribution. The findings highlighted that the dengue fever hotspots were mainly distributed in the old city center of Guangzhou and were significantly shaped by meteorological, land-use and human factors. Meteorological factors including minimum temperature, maximum temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity were correlated with the transmission of dengue fever. Minimum temperature, maximum temperature and relative humidity presented a statistically significant positive correlation with dengue fever cases, while atmospheric pressure presented statistically significant negative correlation. Minimum temperature, maximum temperature, atmospheric pressure and humidity have lag effects on the transmission of dengue fever. The population, community age, subway network density, road network density and ponds presented a statistically significant positive correlation with the number of dengue fever cases, and the interaction among land-use and human factors could enhance dengue fever transmission. The ponds were the most important interaction factors, which might strengthen the influence of other factors on dengue fever transmission. Our findings have implications for pre-emptive dengue fever control.
In this paper, we investigate the effect of emergency signs on evacuation dynamics under smoke conditions. We assume that in a smoky hall the visual field of pedestrians is limited to a certain range, and they do not know the exact location of the exit. In this kind of evacuation process, we analyze the influence of emergency signs on movement direction and speed, and the herd behavior of pedestrians. In the analysis, we divide the emergency signs into two types: the wall signs (WS) and the ground signs (GS). Then, we analyze the variation of pedestrian behavior when they encounter the WS, the GS, and the exit in the evacuation process. Combined with the analysis results, we build our improved model based on the social force model. In the simulation, we study the evacuation process in the case of WS and GS. According to the result of the simulation, we consider that the effect of the emergency signs on herd behavior and the desired speed is an important factor to improve evacuation efficiency. We find that, from the perspective of evacuation time, the evacuation in the case of WS is more efficient, but from the perspective of the interaction between pedestrians, the evacuation in the case of GS presents less security risk. Finally, we explore how to design a mixed layout scheme of WS and GS.
A new force is introduced in the social force model (SFM) for computing following behavior in pedestrian counterflow, whereby an individual tries to approach others in the same direction to avoid conflicts with pedestrians from the opposite direction. The force, like a kind of gravitation, is modeled based on the movement state and visual field of the pedestrian, and is added to the classical SFM. The modified model is presented to study the impact of following behavior on the process of lane formation, the conflict, the number of lanes formed, and the traffic efficiency in the simulations. Simulation results show that the following behavior has a significant effect on the phenomenon of lane formation and the traffic efficiency.
The separating behavior defines the division of a crowd from a single flow into two distributary flows due to the different pedestrians' destinations. Nevertheless, in the existing literature on pedestrian flow, there is a lack of simulation research on the separating crowd behavior in a T-shaped channel. By conducting a series of controlled experiments, we analyzed the moving trajectories and the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of pedestrians in the separation process. Based on an analysis of the controlled experiments, we proposed an improved social force model that fully considers the characteristics of pedestrians' swapping locations, and refines the directions of pedestrians' expected speeds in three stages of the pedestrian separation process. During the simulation, we applied the improved model to explore the effects of the pedestrians' swapping locations on the macroscopic phenomena, microscopic individual behavior, and traffic efficiency within a T-shaped channel. The simulation results show that if pedestrians' swapping locations are concentrated in a certain area close to the entrance, the traffic efficiency in the T-shaped channel will be higher than that if the pedestrians' swapping locations are dispersed. Moreover, as the flow rate at the entrance increases, the swapping location becomes more concentrated closer to the entrance, the mean speed increases, and fewer conflicts occur between the pedestrians.
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