To improve the ecological conditions, the Chinese government adopted six large-scale ecological restoration programs including 'Three-North Shelterbelt Project', "Grain for Green Project" and "Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Control Project". Meanwhile, these ecologically vulnerable areas have experienced frequent droughts. However, little attention has been paid to the impact of drought on the effectiveness of these programs. Taking Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region (BTSSR) as study area, we investigated the role of droughts and ecological restoration program on trends of vegetation activities and to address the question of a possible "drought signal" in assessing effectiveness of ecological restoration program. The results demonstrate the following: (1) Vegetation activity increased in the BTSSR during 2000-2010, with 58.44% of the study area showing an increased NDVI, of which 11.80% had a significant increase at 0.95 confidential level. The decreasing NDVI trends were mainly concentrated in a southwest-to-northeast strip in the study area. (2) Drought was the main driving force for a decreasing trend of vegetation activity in the southwest-to-northeast regions of the BTSSR at the regional and spatial scales. Summer droughts in 2007 and 2009 contributed to the decreasing trend in NDVI. The severe and extreme droughts in summer reduced the NDVI by approximately 13.06% and 23.55%, respectively. (3) The residual analysis result showed that human activities, particularly the ecological restoration programs, have a positive impact on vegetation change. Hence, the decreasing trends in the southwest-to-northeast regions of the BTSSR cannot be explained by the improper ecological restoration program and is partly explained by droughts, especially summer droughts. Therefore, drought offset the ecological restoration program-induced increase in vegetation activity in the BTSSR.
Variability in satellite measurements of terrestrial greenness in drylands is widely observed in land surface processes and global change studies. Yet the underlying causes differ and are not fully understood. Here, we used the GeogDetector model, a new spatial statistical approach, to examine the individual and combined influences of physiographic factors on dryland vegetation greenness changes, and to identify the most suitable characteristics of each principal factor for stimulating vegetation growth. Our results indicated that dryland greenness was predominantly affected by precipitation, soil type, vegetation type, and temperature, either separately or in concert. The interaction between pairs of physiographic factors enhanced the influence of any single factor and displayed significantly non-linear influences on vegetation greenness. Our results also implied that vegetation greenness could be promoted by adopting favorable ranges or types of major physiographical factors, thus beneficial for ecological conservation and restoration that aimed at mitigating environmental degradation.
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