The variability and trend in global precipitable water vapor (PWV) from 1979 to 2014 are analyzed using the PWV data sets from the ERA‐Interim reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), reanalysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), radiosonde, Global Positioning System (GPS), and microwave satellite observations. PWV data from the ECMWF and NCEP have been evaluated by radiosonde, GPS, and microwave satellite observations, showing that ECMWF has higher accuracy than NCEP. Over the oceans, ECMWF has a much better agreement with the microwave satellite than NCEP. An upward trend in the global PWV is evident in all the five PWV data sets over three study periods: 1979–2014, 1992–2014, and 2000–2014. Positive global PWV trends, defined as percentage normalized by annual average, of 0.61 ± 0.33% decade−1, 0.57 ± 0.28% decade−1, and 0.17 ± 0.35% decade−1, have been derived from the NCEP, radiosonde, and ECMWF, respectively, for the period 1979–2014. It is found that ECMWF overestimates the PWV over the ocean prior to 1992. Thus, two more periods, 1992–2014 and 2000–2014, are studied. Increasing PWV trends are observed from all the five data sets in the two periods: 1992–2014 and 2000–2014. The linear relationship between PWV and surface temperature is positive over most oceans and the polar region. Steep positive/negative regression slopes are generally found in regions where large regional moisture flux divergence/convergence occurs.
The correlation between the rate of TEC index (ROTI) and scintillation indices 𝑆 4 and 𝜎 Φ for low latitude region is analyzed in this study, using data collected from a Global Positioning System (GPS) scintillation monitoring receiver installed at the south of Hong Kong for the periods June-August of 2012 and May-December of 2013. The analysis indicates that the correlation coefficient between ROTI and 𝑆 4 /𝜎 Φ is about 0.6 if data from all GPS satellites are used together. If each individual satellite is considered, the correlation coefficients are above 0.6 on average and sometimes above 0.8. The analysis also shows that the ratio of ROTI and 𝑆 4 varies between 1 and 4. The ratio ROTI/𝜎 Φ , varies between 2 and 9. In addition, it is also found that there is a good consistency between the temporal variations of ROTI with scintillation activity under different ionospheric conditions. ROTI has a high correlation relationship with scintillation indices on geomagnetically disturbed days or in solar active months. Moreover, the data observed at low elevation angles have weak correlation between ROTI and scintillation indices. These results demonstrate the feasibility of using ROTI derived from GPS observations recorded by common non-scintillation GPS receivers to characterize ionospheric scintillations.
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