Background:Smoking is a risk factor for incident colorectal cancer (CRC); however, it is unclear about its influence on survival after CRC diagnosis.Methods:A cohort of 706 CRC patients diagnosed from 1999 to 2003 in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada, was followed for mortality and recurrence until April 2010. Smoking and other relevant data were collected by questionnaire after cancer diagnosis, using a referent period of ‘2 years before diagnosis' to capture pre-diagnosis information. Molecular analyses of microsatellite instability (MSI) status and BRAF V600E mutation status were performed in tumour tissue using standard techniques. Multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated with Cox proportional hazards regression, controlling for major prognostic factors.Results:Compared with never smokers, all-cause mortality (overall survival, OS) was higher for current (HR: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.04–3.06), but not for former (HR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.71–1.59) smokers. The associations of cigarette smoking with the study outcomes were higher among patients with ⩾40 pack-years of smoking (OS: HR: 1.72; 95% CI: 1.03–2.85; disease-free survival (DFS: HR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.25–3.19), those who smoked ⩾30 cigarettes per day (DFS: HR: 1.80; 95% CI: 1.22–2.67), and those with microsatellite stable (MSS) or MSI-low tumours (OS: HR: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.04–1.82 and DFS: HR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.01–1.72). Potential heterogeneity was noted for sex (DFS HR: 1.68 for men and 1.01 for women: P for heterogeneity=0.04), and age at diagnosis (OS: HR: 1.11 for patients aged <60 and 1.69 for patients aged ⩾60: P for heterogeneity=0.03).Conclusions:Pre-diagnosis cigarette smoking is associated with worsened prognosis among patients with CRC.

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Several N-nitroso compounds (NOC) have been shown to be carcinogenic in a variety of laboratory animals, but evidence of their carcinogenicity in humans is lacking. We aimed to examine the association between NOC intake and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk and possible effect modification by vitamins C and E and protein in a large case-control study carried out in Newfoundland and Labrador, and Ontario, Canada. A total of 1760 case patients with pathologically confirmed adenocarcinoma and 2481 population controls were asked to complete a self-administered FFQ to evaluate their dietary intakes 1 year before diagnosis (for cases) or interview (for controls). Adjusted OR and 95% CI were calculated across the quintiles of NOC (measured by N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA)) intake and relevant food items using unconditional logistic regression. NDMA intake was found to be associated with a higher risk of CRC (highest vs lowest quintiles, OR: 1.42; 95% CI: 1.03,1.96; p-trend=0.005), specifically for rectal carcinoma (OR: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.11,2.35; p-trend=0.01). CRC risk also increased with the consumption of NDMA-containing meats when the highest tertile was compared with the lowest tertile (OR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.03,2.10; p-trend=0.20). There was evidence of effect modification between dietary vitamin E and NDMA. Individuals with high NDMA and low vitamin E intakes had a significantly increased risk than those with both low NDMA and vitamin E intakes (OR:3.01; 95% CI: 1.43,6.51; p-interaction=0.017). The present results support the hypothesis that NOC intake may be positively associated with CRC risk in humans. Vitamin E, which inhibits nitrosation, could modify the effect of NDMA on CRC risk.

ObjectivesThere is a growing body of literature on malaria forecasting methods and the objective of our review is to identify and assess methods, including predictors, used to forecast malaria.DesignScoping review. Two independent reviewers searched information sources, assessed studies for inclusion and extracted data from each study.Information sourcesSearch strategies were developed and the following databases were searched: CAB Abstracts, EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE, ProQuest Dissertations & Theses and Web of Science. Key journals and websites were also manually searched.Eligibility criteria for included studiesWe included studies that forecasted incidence, prevalence or epidemics of malaria over time. A description of the forecasting model and an assessment of the forecast accuracy of the model were requirements for inclusion. Studies were restricted to human populations and to autochthonous transmission settings.ResultsWe identified 29 different studies that met our inclusion criteria for this review. The forecasting approaches included statistical modelling, mathematical modelling and machine learning methods. Climate-related predictors were used consistently in forecasting models, with the most common predictors being rainfall, relative humidity, temperature and the normalised difference vegetation index. Model evaluation was typically based on a reserved portion of data and accuracy was measured in a variety of ways including mean-squared error and correlation coefficients. We could not compare the forecast accuracy of models from the different studies as the evaluation measures differed across the studies.ConclusionsApplying different forecasting methods to the same data, exploring the predictive ability of non-environmental variables, including transmission reducing interventions and using common forecast accuracy measures will allow malaria researchers to compare and improve models and methods, which should improve the quality of malaria forecasting.

Background Diet is regarded as one of the most important environmental factors associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. A recent report comprehensively concluded that total energy intake does not have a simple relationship with CRC risk, and that the data were inconsistent for carbohydrate, cholesterol and protein. The objective of this study was to identify the associations of CRC risk with dietary intakes of total energy, protein, fat, carbohydrate, fiber, and alcohol using data from a large case-control study conducted in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) and Ontario (ON), Canada. Methods Incident colorectal cancer cases (n = 1760) were identified from population-based cancer registries in the provinces of ON (1997-2000) and NL (1999-2003). Controls (n = 2481) were a random sample of residents in each province, aged 20-74 years. Family history questionnaire (FHQ), personal history questionnaire (PHQ), and food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) were used to collect study data. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association of intakes of total energy, macronutrients and alcohol with CRC risk. Results Total energy intake was associated with higher risk of CRC (OR: 1.56; 95% CI: 1.21-2.01, p -trend = 0.02, 5 th versus 1 st quintile), whereas inverse associations emerged for intakes of protein (OR: 0.85, 95%CI: 0.69-1.00, p -trend = 0.06, 5 th versus 1 st quintile), carbohydrate (OR: 0.81, 95%CI: 0.63-1.00, p -trend = 0.05, 5 th versus 1 st quintile) and total dietary fiber (OR: 0.84, 95% CI:0.67-0.99, p -trend = 0.04, 5 th versus 1 st quintile). Total fat, alcohol, saturated fatty acids, monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, and cholesterol were not associated with CRC risk. Conclusion This study provides further evidence that high energy intake may increase risk of incident CRC, whereas diets high in protein, fiber, and carbohydrate may reduce the risk of the disease.