How does the agglomeration economy affect carbon emissions? Does it hinder China's zero-carbon emissions and carbon neutral goals? This study explored the impact of industrial agglomeration on carbon emissions and spatial spillover effects by expanding the output density theoretical model of Ciccone & Hall. The main findings are as follows: (1) Industrial labor and technology agglomerations increase regional carbon emissions, while industrial output agglomeration reduces emissions in the immediate term. Industrial capital agglomeration has no significant immediate effect on carbon emission. (2) Industrial output and technology agglomerations have significant lag effects. Output agglomeration increases carbon emissions, while technology agglomeration reduces emission levels. (3) The impact of industrial output agglomeration on regional carbon emissions shifts from a positive inhibitory effect into a negative aggravating effect. In comparison, industrial technology agglomeration transitions from increasing carbon emissions in the immediate term into having a suppressing effect in the long term. (4) There are significant regional differences in the impact of industrial output and capital agglomerations, while industrial labor and technology agglomerations showed no significant regional difference. The results are important in developing policies and strategies of the economy and the environment.

Identifying the differentiated effects of different environmental regulations is the basis for promoting China's zero carbon emissions and carbon neutrality. We used Chinese provincial panel data from 2003 to 2017 to empirically test the impact of different environmental regulations on carbon neutrality through spatial measurement models. The highlights of the study are as follows: (1) Environmental regulations exert significant impact on carbon emissions, but different types of environmental regulations exert significantly different effect on carbon emissions. Public participation environmental regulation has a control effect on regional carbon emissions, while command-based and market-based environmental regulations had no significant effect on regional carbon neutrality. (2) The heterogeneity of the impact of different types of environmental regulations on carbon emissions can also be identified from the regional impacts heterogeneity and lags impact heterogeneity. (3) The combined mandatory and market-based environmental regulations and the combined mandatory and public-participatory environmental regulations significantly inhibited regional carbon neutrality.

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