Anthropogenic
methane emissions in China increased by 40% in the
2000s, contributing 16% of global anthropogenic emissions. The trend
after 2010, however, remains under debate. An improved understanding
of major sources and their trends, informed by timely and accurate
data, is required to monitor efforts toward climate mitigation goals.
Here we update a detailed bottom-up inventory to evaluate recent changes
in China’s anthropogenic CH4 emissions. Combining
our and other bottom-up inventories and seven global CH4 inversions, we show a slowdown of emission increase after 2010 [0.2
(−0.3 to 0.7) Tg of CH4 year–2] compared to the 2000s [1.2 (0.6–1.8) Tg of CH4 year–2], with a downward trend detected after
2014. Although there are considerable uncertainties, this slowdown
is statistically significant (p < 0.001). The
slowdown is mainly attributed to stabilized coal production in the
2010s, along with a regional shift of production toward mining areas
with low emission factors and increased utilization of coal mine methane.
Our results suggest that China’s recent energy policies have
helped control coal mine emissions, and further work is needed to
narrow down the uncertainty in both bottom-up inventories and top-down
inversions.
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