Background The demand for productive economic plant resources is increasing with the continued growth of the human population. Ancient Pu’er tea trees [Camellia sinensis var. assamica (J. W. Mast.) Kitam.] are an important ecological resource with high economic value and large interests. The study intends to explore and evaluate critical drivers affecting the species’ productivity, then builds formulas and indexes to make predicting the productivity of such valuable plant resources possible and applicable. Results Our analysis identified the ideal values of the seven most important environmental variables and their relative contribution (shown in parentheses) to the distribution of ancient Pu’er tea trees: annual precipitation, ca. 1245 mm (28.73%); min temperature of coldest month, ca. 4.2 °C (18.25%); precipitation of driest quarter, ca. 47.5 mm (14.45%); isothermality, 49.9% to 50.4% (14.11%); precipitation seasonality, ca. 89.2 (6.77%); temperature seasonality, ca. 391 (4.46%); and solar radiation, 12,250 to 13,250 kJ m−2 day−1 (3.28%). Productivity was indicated by the total value (viz. fresh leaf harvested multiplied by unit price) of each tree. Environmental suitability, tree growth, and management positively affected productivity; regression weights were 0.325, 0.982, and 0.075, respectively. The degree of productivity was classified as follows: > 0.8, “highly productive”; 0.5–0.8, “productive”; 0.3–0.5, “poorly productive”; and < 0.3, “unproductive”. Overall, 53% of the samples were categorized as “poorly productive” or “unproductive”; thus, the management of these regions require attention. Conclusions This model improves the accuracy of the predictions of ancient Pu’er tea tree productivity and will aid future analyses of distribution shifts under climate change, as well as the identification of areas suitable for Pu’er tea tree plantations. Our modeling framework provides insights that facilitate the interpretation of abstract concepts and could be applied to other economically valuable plant resources.

Lacquer trees (Toxicodendron vernicifluum (Stokes) F.A. Barkley) are an important natural resource with significant economic and cultural value in East Asia. The main product, raw lacquer, is in high demand due to its commercially valuable characteristics. This study analyzed environmental drivers of the current and future distribution of lacquer trees in high-yielding locations using a machine-learning algorithm and Maxent models. Results identified suitable value ranges for four key environmental variables and their relative contribution to environmentally suitable areas (shown as percentages in parentheses): solar radiation, 12 000–13 000 kJ m−2 day−1 (43.1 per cent); min temperature of the coldest month, −3.5 to 3°C (18.7 per cent); annual precipitation, 900–1400 mm (13.9 per cent) and water vapour pressure, 1.2–1.6 KPa (5.1 per cent). Overall, projected climate change until 2100 will reduce the extent of environments suitable for high-yielding lacquer trees in China and the Republic of Korea, although these areas will expand in Japan. In addition to the three East Asian countries in which lacquer trees and production are currently important, the study identified environmentally suitable areas for growing lacquer trees in other countries worldwide under future climate conditions. The study’s methodology, which divided high-yielding records from other occurrence records and modeled them separately, was applicable in analyzing environmental drivers and modelling suitable areas for lacquer trees. This approach may also be beneficial to study the distributions of other plants, especially economically important crops and trees. In future studies, additional data sets capturing anthropogenic drivers and information on single tree level could further improve models exploring the productivity and sustainability of lacquer trees under future climates.

Ancient Pu’er tea trees (Camellia sinensis var. assamica (J. W. Mast.) Kitam.) are an important ecological resource with high economic value. Knowledge of the environmental variables shaping the original distribution and the effects of climate change on the future potential distribution of these trees, as well as the identification of sustainable management approaches, is essential for ensuring their future health and production. Here, we used 28 current environmental variables and the future climate data to model the suitable areas for ancient Pu’er tea trees. We also compared the health of these ancient trees in areas under different local management strategies. The results suggested the general distribution is likely to remain stable, but there are environmentally suitable areas outside its current habitats. To achieve more sustainable management, the main areas in which the management of poorly-managed trees can be improved include learning from managers of well-managed trees and following the common technical management regulations stipulated by the local government. The suitable value ranges for environmental factors, potentially suitable areas under climate change, and assessment of management approaches will aid the future cultivation and transplantation of ancient Pu’er tea trees. The methodology includes management-level analysis and provides practical insights that could be applied to regions outside the most suitable areas identified.