Abstract:This study investigates the efficiency of foreign exchange market in Pakistan. Based on monthly data during the period of July 2000 to October 2012 for 13 currencies against the Pak Rupee, three techniques of regression analysis are applied. The result of regression on trended data portrayed that unbiased hypothesis does not hold in the exchange rate market owing to serial correlation and non-stationary time-series data. The regression analysis with de-trended data remarked exchange rate market of Pakistan is neither efficient nor speculative. The findings of regression analysis with orthogonality experiment explored incidence of bandwagon behavior in selected currencies. The results of this study suggested that concerned authorities should reinforce information dissemination procedure and regulate unofficial currency markets activities for maintaining the efficiency of foreign exchange market in Pakistan.

This study empirically examines the link between stock market returns and exchange rate fluctuations using monthly data ranging from 1993 to 2016 for selected SAARC countries (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka). In the presence of other macroeconomic factors, dynamic links in the financial markets are investigated using Hamilton's Markov switching approach. The multivariate analysis reveals that stock market returns develop in accordance with two different regimes: during a crisis and when there is no crisis. The study discovered evidence of switching suggesting that stock markets have persistent volatility in bullish trends and are influenced more by currency returns during both calm and turbulent periods. However, stock markets with persistent volatility in bearish trends are influenced more by other macroeconomic factors, in both periods. This implies that movements in the stock market are regimedependent and transition probabilities between regimes can be affected by certain macroeconomic factors. Contribution/Originality: This study contributes to the existing literature by examining whether there is a switching behavior in South Asian stock markets and whether regime-switching behavior is influenced by a number of factors that directly or indirectly affect internal and external economic, financial, and political elements during times of crisis and stability.