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Background: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards inspectors are faced with the difficult task of learning the layout of complex nuclear facilities while being escorted through the facilities. This study addresses a gap in the literature regarding how to best support the development of inspectors' spatial knowledge, given the constraint that they cannot bring digital devices into most nuclear facilities. We tested whether viewing a map before learning a guided route or carrying a map along the route enabled better spatial learning than having no exposure to a map. Moreover, we tested the impact of carrying maps with different levels of detail (simple 2D, simple 3D, or complex 2D maps) on spatial learning outcomes, as well as interactions between map type and individual differences in sense of direction. Results: The results showed nearly opposite patterns of performance for participants with good and poor sense of direction scores. Participants with a good sense of direction showed higher levels of spatial knowledge when studying or carrying simple maps, whether 2D or 3D, but they did not benefit from using a complex map. Participants with a poor sense of direction showed lower levels of spatial knowledge when using a simple map relative to using no map or a complex map, suggesting that they did not attempt to use the complex map. For both groups of participants, referring to a simple map while learning a route decreased their awareness of their environment, as measured by response times on a memory test that included incidentally learned items.

Eye tracking is a useful tool for studying human cognition, both in the laboratory and in real-world applications. However, there are cases in which eye tracking is not possible, such as in high-security environments where recording devices cannot be introduced. After facing this challenge in our own work, we sought to test the effectiveness of using artificial foveation as an alternative to eye tracking for studying visual search performance. Two groups of participants completed the same list comparison task, which was a computer-based task designed to mimic an inventory verification process that is commonly performed by international nuclear safeguards inspectors. We manipulated the way in which the items on the inventory list were ordered and color coded. For the eye tracking group, an eye tracker was used to assess the order in which participants viewed the items and the number of fixations per trial in each list condition. For the artificial foveation group, the items were covered with a blurry mask except when participants moused over them. We tracked the order in which participants viewed the items by moving their mouse and the number of items viewed per trial in each list condition. We observed the same overall pattern of performance for the various list display conditions, regardless of the method. However, participants were much slower to complete the task when using artificial foveation and had more variability in their accuracy. Our results indicate that the artificial foveation method can reveal the same pattern of differences across conditions as eye tracking, but it can also impact participants’ task performance.

SummaryThis Preliminary Assessment report presents the results of a literature search and preliminary assessment of the body of research, analysis methods, models, and data deemed to be relevant to the Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment research. This report provides: 1) a description of the problem space and the kinds of information pertinent to the problem space, 2) a discussion of key relevant or representative literature, 3) a discussion of models and modeling opportunities judged to have promise to the research, and 4) the next steps of this research that will be pursued based on this preliminary assessment. This report represents a technical deliverable for the NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling program. Specifically this report is the Task 1 deliverable for project PL09-UtilSocial-PD06, Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment.This project investigates the use of social and cultural information to improve nuclear proliferation assessment, including nonproliferation assessment, proliferation resistance assessments, safeguards assessments, and other related studies. These assessments often use and create technical information about the State's posture towards proliferation, the vulnerability of a nuclear energy system to an undesired event, and the effectiveness of safeguards. This project will find and fuse social and technical information by explicitly considering the role of cultural, social, and behavioral factors relevant to proliferation. The aim of this research is to describe and demonstrate if and how social science modeling has utility in proliferation assessment.The primary aim of this report is to summarize the references that have been collected for this research and present our initial assessment of their implications for proliferation assessment. For the sake of providing an organized overview of the body of literature relating to this research, the review was divided into five topics: 1) Theories of State-level proliferation, 2) Proliferation resistance assessment (of technologies), 3) Safeguards analysis, 4) Non-State proliferation and 5) Social and cultural modeling. Abstracts are provided for the key references used in the discussions of each topic.Based on the literature search we have concluded that there are opportunities to use social models to improve understanding and assessment of proliferation-related problems. In fact, for decades analysts have theorized about the factors that dictate whether a State pursues the development of nuclear weapons-these factors are primarily social factors or are factors that are intimately related to social factors (e.g., national identity, leadership, politics, domestic security, economic capability). Social modeling offers a way to formalize or leverage this body of analysis and theory. This report identifies opportunities for social modeling specifically related to overarching kinds of assessments. These include proliferation resistance assessment of a nuclear energy system, or the assessment of a set o...

SummaryThis report presents the results of efforts towards development of a Facility-Level Model (i.e., singlelocation assessment) that demonstrates the use of social modeling to enhance an assessment process that is technical in nature. This effort builds on a literature search and preliminary assessment performed as the first stage of the Utility of Social Modeling or Proliferation Assessment project. This second report represents the culmination of the first year of research for project PL09-UtilSocial.This report provides: 1) background information on relevant social factors literature and on existing facility assessment modeling approaches germane to this demonstration, 2) a discussion of social modeling done to support determination of social factors relevant to nuclear facility modeling, 3) an enhancement concept for a specific existing nuclear facility assessment model using social factors, 4) a discussion of engagement with the facility assessment model owners about using social factors, 5) discussion of implementation of the new assessment approach based on the proposed modeling enhancement, including discussion of functionality and potential users, and 6) conclusions. This report represents technical deliverables for the NA-22 Simulations, Algorithms, and Modeling program. Specifically this report is the Task 2 and 3 deliverables for project PL09-UtilSocial.Based on the literature search preliminary assessment (i.e., PNNL-18438, Utility of Social Modeling for Proliferation Assessment) performed as the first stage of this research, we have concluded that there are opportunities to use social models to improve understanding and assessment of proliferation-related problems. For decades analysts have theorized about the factors that dictate whether a State pursues the development of nuclear weapons-these factors are primarily social factors or are factors that are intimately related to social factors (e.g., national identity, leadership, politics, domestic security, and economic capability). Social modeling offers a way to formalize or leverage this body of analysis and theory. PNNL-18438 also identifies opportunities for social modeling to support both overarching kinds of assessments like a State safeguards evaluation; facility-level assessments like a Proliferation Resistance (PR) assessment of a nuclear energy system (NES); and other kinds of specific proliferation assessmentrelated modeling efforts such as the use of satellite imagery to identify proliferation activity. One kind of facility-level assessment is a PR assessment. Various approaches and methodologies have been proposed to assess the PR of NES facilities. An international approach being developed and supported by the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) PR and Physical Protection (PR&PP) working group uses defined proliferation measures and incorporates structured expert elicitation. This methodology uses pathway analysis to evaluate different scenarios in NES facilities that could result in nuclear proliferation by considering five po...