Background We used data released by the government to analyze the epidemiological distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis in mainland China from 2004 to 2015, in order to provide a deeper understanding of trends in the epidemiology of pulmonary tuberculosis in China and a theoretical basis to assess the effectiveness of government interventions and develop more targeted prevention and control strategies. Methods A discrete dynamic model was designed based on the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis and fitted to data published by the government to estimate changes in indicators such as adequate contact rate, prevalence of non-treated pulmonary tuberculosis (abbreviated as prevalence), and infection rate. Finally, we performed sensitivity analyses of the effects of parameters on the population infection rate. Results The epidemiological features of pulmonary tuberculosis in China include a pattern of seasonal fluctuations, with the highest rates of infection in autumn and winter. The adequate contact rate has increased slightly from an average of 0.12/month in 2010 to an average of 0.21/month in 2015. The prevalence in the population has continued to decrease from 3.4% in early 2004 to 1.7% in late 2015. The Mycobacterium tuberculosis ( M. tuberculosis ) infection rate in the population decreased gradually from 42.3% at the beginning of 2004 to 36.7% at the end of 2015. The actual number of new infections gradually decreased from 1,300,000/year in 2010 to 1,100,000/year in 2015. The actual number of new patients each year has been relatively stable since 2010 and remains at approximately 2,600,000/year. Conclusions The population prevalence and the M. tuberculosis infection rate have decreased year by year since 2004, indicating that the tuberculosis epidemic in China has been effectively controlled. However, pulmonary tuberculosis has become increasingly contagious since 2010. China should focus on the prevention and control of pulmonary tuberculosis during autumn and winter. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-6544-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

We constructed dynamic Ebola virus disease (EVD) transmission models to predict epidemic trends and evaluate intervention measure efficacy following the 2014 EVD epidemic in West Africa. We estimated the effective vaccination rate for the population, with basic reproduction number (R0) as the intermediate variable. Periodic EVD fluctuation was analyzed by solving a Jacobian matrix of differential equations based on a SIR (susceptible, infective, and removed) model. A comprehensive compartment model was constructed to fit and predict EVD transmission patterns, and to evaluate the effects of control and prevention measures. Effective EVD vaccination rates were estimated to be 42% (31–50%), 45% (42–48%), and 51% (44–56%) among susceptible individuals in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, respectively. In the absence of control measures, there would be rapid mortality in these three countries, and an EVD epidemic would be likely recur in 2035, and then again 8~9 years later. Oscillation intervals would shorten and outbreak severity would decrease until the periodicity reached ~5.3 years. Measures that reduced the spread of EVD included: early diagnosis, treatment in isolation, isolating/monitoring close contacts, timely corpse removal, post-recovery condom use, and preventing or quarantining imported cases. EVD may re-emerge within two decades without control and prevention measures. Mass vaccination campaigns and control and prevention measures should be instituted to prevent future EVD epidemics.

Background We aimed to forecast the number of unidentified and newly acquired HIV-infected individuals each year and to estimate the effectiveness of government prevention and control programs in China. Methods Dynamic and stochastic models were established based on officially published data regarding the four main modes of transmission: male homosexual sexual behavior, heterosexual sexual behavior, injection drug use (IDU) and plasma donation. Finally, we performed sensitivity analyses on model parameters. Results Nationally, by December 2016, approximately 280 790 individuals were estimated to have an unidentified HIV infection, with transmission via male homosexual sexual behavior (n = 100 710), heterosexual sexual behavior (n = 174 310), IDU (n = 5 620) and plasma donation (n = 150). Moreover, 196 970 newly acquired HIV-infected individuals were expected in 2016, via male homosexual sexual behavior (n = 78 610), heterosexual sexual behavior (n = 116,540), IDU (n = 1820), and plasma donation (n < 2). Conclusions Our results show that HIV transmission via IDU and plasma donation has been effectively controlled; transmission via heterosexual sexual contact is being somewhat controlled; however, transmission via male homosexual sexual contact is not controlled. Hence, China should strengthen efforts aimed at control of unsafe sexual behaviors.

In order to accurately grasp the timing for the prevention and control of diseases, we established an artificial neural network model to issue early warning signals. The real-time recurrent learning (RTRL) and extended Kalman filter (EKF) methods were performed to analyse four types of respiratory infectious diseases and four types of digestive tract infectious diseases in China to comprehensively determine the epidemic intensities and whether to issue early warning signals. The numbers of new confirmed cases per month between January 2004 and December 2017 were used as the training set; the data from 2018 were used as the test set. The results of RTRL showed that the number of new confirmed cases of respiratory infectious diseases in September 2018 increased abnormally. The results of the EKF showed that the number of new confirmed cases of respiratory infectious diseases increased abnormally in January and February of 2018. The results of these two algorithms showed that the number of new confirmed cases of digestive tract infectious diseases in the test set did not have any abnormal increases. The neural network and machine learning can further enrich and develop the early warning theory.

BackgroundAn outbreak of respiratory disease associated with adenovirus type 7 occurred in a boot camp in China and was characterized by many cases, severe symptoms, and intrapulmonary infection in many patients. MethodsWe implemented a series of comprehensive preventive and control measures. We analyzed the incubation period and generation time by using the maximum likelihood method, assessed the symptom period and hospitalization duration using the Kaplan-Meier method, and estimated the basic reproductive number and dormitory transmission rate by using established methods. ResultsThe epidemic lasted for 30 days, and 375 individuals were affected. Overall, 109 patients were hospitalized, and 266 individuals were isolated and treated. The median incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.0 to 5.4 days). The median generation time was 7.3 days (95% CI: 7.1 to 7.6 days). The median symptom period was 6 days (95% CI: 6 to 7 days). The median hospitalization duration was 9 days (95% CI: 9 to 11 days). The basic reproductive number was 5.1 (95% CI: 4.6 to 5.6), and the dormitory transmission rate was 0.15 (95% CI: 0.12 to 0.18). ConclusionPatients in the early stage of the epidemic were treated as having a regular cold and were not isolated; therefore, the virus continued to be transmitted to other susceptible individuals.