Significant increase in foreign exchange reserves in recent decades, including the period of the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, has intensified research on the importance and role of foreign exchange reserves and their adequate level. Although the financial crisis has emphasised the importance of maintaining an adequate level of foreign exchange reserves, there is insufficient consensus on the level of foreign exchange reserves that should be maintained in the event of crises and shocks.This paper explores foreign exchange reserves of Bosnia and Herzegovina and their adequate level over the period from 2005 to 2015 as well as in the event of a shock which can be generated by internal or external factors.The aim of this paper is to examine whether foreign exchange reserves of Bosnia and Herzegovina were sufficient in the observed period as well as in the event of shocks that national economy could be exposed to.For the research purposes, comparative method and the application of sensitivity analysis and scenarios were used to analyse and evaluate the adequacy of foreign exchange reserves of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The final results demonstrate thatduring the observed period foreign exchange reserves of Bosnia and Herzegovinawere adequate. However, in the case of extreme shocks Bosnia and Herzegovinadoes not possess the sufficient level of foreign exchange reserves. Such findings recommendto the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina, together with other economicpolicies, additional efforts to accumulate foreign exchange reserves in themedium term.

JEL klasifi kacija: E43 UVODKamatasedefi nišekaonaknadakojasedajezakorištenjetuđihzamjenjivihstvariza-određenovremenskorazdoblje (Krleža, 1995: 372). Tokom istorije razvile su se različite teorije kamata i kamatnih stopa. U osnovi svih teorija je povezanost kamatne stope sa ekonomskim kretanjima, količinom novčane mase, prihodima, investicijama, infl acijom i sl.Prema američkom ekonomisti Fisheru kamatna stopa je u uskoj vezi sa prihodima, tj. visinom prihoda, strukturom prihoda i njegovoj distribuciji u vremenu.

JEL klasifi kacija: G21 UVODDeregulacija i globalizacija su otvorile put ukidanju ograničenja u bankarskom poslovanju. Uključenje banaka na fi nansijska tržišta i globalna fi nansijska tržišta proširilo je obim njihovog poslovanja. Investiciono bankarstvo postalo je segment redovnog bankarstva a razlike između poslovnih i investicijskih banaka su nestale.

Governments of many countries, companies and business organizations last decades increasingly pay attention and recognize the importance of the capital market for economic growth and development. One of the factors that has strong influence on the capital market, as a platform for long-term borrowing and obtaining funds, is the price movement of financial instruments traded on capital market. The price movement of financial instruments is linked to the efficiency of the market, and is under strong influence of all available information about companies, which quickly reflect on the prices of financial instruments.Fama (1965) was one of the first economist who used term „efficient financial market“. He conducteda research on the financial market and pointed out that in an efficient market, on average, competition would cause that all effects of the latest market information will be included through the value of shares traded. The hypothesis of an efficient financial market suggests that the price of the shares, financial instruments, reflects all available information, so investor cannot realize extra profits if he has some certain insider information or on the basis of publicly available historical data and information. Many investors are trying to find those securities that are underestimated, and for which is expected to growth in the future. In a case of efficient financial market, it is quite impossible to find underestimated securities because information quickly incorporated into the price of securities. Ttesting of the efficiency of financial market is largely present in the developed markets, while somewhat weaker tests have been carried out on the examples of transitional financial markets. In published researches it is most often confirmed that transition countries have or have had poorly performing financial markets, especially in the initial stages of their development (Bahmani-Oskooee et al, 2016; Kvedaras and Basdevant, 2002).In this research we are testing the efficient market hypothesis for the financial market in Bosnia and Herzegovina. We tested hypothesis that the financial market is weakly efficient. For this test we are using stock index data from the Sarajevo and Banja Luka Stock Exchange, SASX10, BIRS and BATX index. The analysis includes daily, weekly and monthly index movements from 2006 to August 2018, for SASX 10 and BIRS indices, while BATX data is available from 2009 until August 2018. In the first step we calculate returns for all periods (deily, weekly and montly) between indicies and in another step we tested autocorrelation between their returns.Efficient market hypothesis has been tested through three statistical tests: autocorrelation test, run test and variance test. The results obtained by applying different tests do not give a single answer to the question whether financial market in Bosnia and Herzegovina perform at a low level of efficiency. Auto-correlation tests reject the hypothesis of weak form market efficiency,while the run test and the test of variance ratios confirm the weak form of market efficiency. Such findings suggest that it is not possible, with sufficient precision, to predict trends in the financial market in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Apstrakt:Poznato je da se centralne banke ubrajaju u najveće vlasnike zlata, odnosno zlatnih rezervi. Tokom perioda krize, koja je još uvijek aktuelna, centralne banke zemalja širom sveta su povećavale zlatne rezerve. S obzirom da se devizne rezerve zlata uglavnom drže u formi fizičkog zlata, postavlja se pitanje njihovog efikasnijeg korišćenja, odnosno efikasnijeg investiranja. Autori ovom prilikom ukazuju na mogućnosti koje stoje pred centralnim bankama u domenu efikasnijeg upravljanja portfoliom monetarnog zlata. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je tokom kriznog perioda došlo do naglog pada kamatnih stopa na "zlatne" depozite i svopove na zlato, ali su ove stope i dalje nešto veće u odnosu na klasične kamatne stope na depozite ili prinose hartija od vrijednosti. Abstract:It is well-known that the central banks are among major holders of gold, i.e., gold reserves. During the crisis, the central banks worldwide have increased their gold reserves. Given that foreign exchange reserves of gold are mostly held as physical gold, the question arises concerning their more efficient use, i.e., efficient investments. The authors shall hereby indicate the opportunities available to central banks in the domain of more efficient monetary gold portfolio management.Research results indicate a sudden and sharp decrease of interest rates paid for gold deposits and gold swaps during the crisis, which are still slightly greater than the classic interest rates for deposits or income securities. Ključne reči:investiranje, "zlatni" depoziti, svopovi na zlato. UVODMonetarno zlato je kroz istoriju bilo posebno važna aktiva centralnih banaka. Jačanje i razvoj krize značajno su uzdrmali tržište zlata te je u situacijama pojačane krize i likvidnosti na tržištu došlo do ogromnog rasta tražnje za zlatom, te je vrijednost ove aktive tokom 2010. godine dostigla rekordno visoke nivoe. Kako je dolazilo do povećanja vrijednosti zlata, tako su druge opcije investiranja u zlato, zlatni depoziti i svop stope na zlato, postajale manje atraktivne. Ovom prilikom će se prikazati mogućnosti investiranja monetarnog zlata u formi "zlatnih" svopova i "zlatnih" depozita koji su primjenljivi za investiranje monetarnog zlata koji se nalazi u portfolijima centranih banaka, te njihovo poređenje sa kamatnim stopa na tržištu. Za osnovu poređenja analizirane su kamatne stope na hartije od vrijednosti Njemačke. TRENDOVI INVESTIRANJA MONETARNOG ZLATAKrajem 2014. godine tržište zlata je imalo snažnu podršku sa aspekta tražnje za ovom aktivom. Tačnije, tokom IV kvartala tražnja za zlatom je povećana za 6% u odnosu na kvartal ranije. Ipak, ukupna godišnja tražnja za zlatom je smanjena za 4%. Nakon značajnih kupovina zlata od strane centralnih banaka tokom poslednjih godina, postavilo se pitanje da li će se isti trend nastaviti i tokom 2014. godine. Prema podacima koje je objavio World Gold Council, tokom 2014. godine centralne banke su bile neto kupci zlata te je tokom 2014. godine od strane centralnih banaka kupljeno 477 t zlata, što je za 17% više u odnosu na 20...