Under the third-party logistics management inventory model, the system dynamics method is used to establish a nonlinear supply chain system model with supply capacity limitation and nonpermissible return, which is based on unsatisfied demand nonaccumulation. The theory of singular value and the Jury Test are used to derive the stable interval of the model which is simplified. The Largest Lyapunov Exponent (LLE) of the system is calculated by the Wolf reconstruction method and used to analyze the influence of different parameters of system’s stability. Then, the most reasonable and unreasonable combination of decision parameters under different demand environment is found out. Next, this paper compared and analyzed the change of inventory or transportation volume of system members under the combination of rational and irrational decision parameters. All of these provided guidance for decision making, which shows an important practical significance.

Based on the local decision perspective and the global decision perspective, considering the limitation of supply capacity and prohibiting returns, the system dynamics method is used to establish a nonlinear supply chain system model. We use the Z-transform theory to transform the dynamic transfer equation into a block diagram, build a supply chain system simulation model, and use it to conduct simulation experiments. The Wolf reconstruction method is used to calculate the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE) value of each node or combined system to judge the stability of the system. Based on different decision-making perspectives, under different combinations of safety stock factors and demand scenarios, the adjustment coefficients’ decision-making schemes that keep each node in a stable state are obtained. Then, we comparatively analyze the inventory changes of each node and combined system in a stable state under different decision-making schemes.