Climate change and its impact on hydrological characteristics is a research topic of increasing interest. Studies that examine historical, current or future changes in hydrological regimes are important for understanding future changes in the water balance and its components. This study analyses changes in long-term discharges in the summer and winter halfyear and the baseflow index for eight selected river basins in Slovakia till 2100. For the analysis, data observed from the period 1981-2010 were used to calibrate the HBV-type rainfall-runoff TUW model. To simulate future discharges up to the 2100 horizon, two climate scenarios were used, i.e., the Dutch KNMI and the German MPI. The analysis was performed for four selected periods with a duration of 30 years. The results point to the most significant changes in the increase in long-term seasonal discharges in the winter half-year by 2100. In the future, the summer period will probably be characterised by a reduction in long-term seasonal discharges and decrease in the base flow index in all of the basins analysed.

<p>Land degradation caused by anthropogenic activities (deforestation, overgrazing, unsuitable land-use and management practices) negatively influence the well-being of people and also accelerates soil erosion processes. The main evidence for a link between soil degradation and water erosion can be seen in the following elements: increasing rainfall intensity, permafrost thawing, biomass production, tillage, cultivation overgrazing, deforestation/ vegetation clearing, vegetation burning, poorly designed roads and paths to a global extent. Therefore, it is significant to investigate degradation processes in order to point out the possible adverse effects of unsuitable management practices of the landscape in the scale of past and future periods. A future prediction of the development of any processes requires long-term investigation and analysis of the phenomenon predetermined to assess future behaviour. On the contrary, analysis of past processes shows us precipitation patterns and reveals their effect on the generation of degradation processes. The study describes the role of rainfall events on a generation of erosion processes, especially soil water erosion in the catchments located in Poland (Zagożdżonka) and Slovakia (Svacenicky Jarok). A common characteristic of these catchments is the susceptibility to degradation processes, the predominance of arable land and the dominant agricultural use of catchments. In the case of Zagożdżonka catchment (Poland) the modelling period covers the years 1963-2020 with the real measured rainfall events. On the contrary, in the case of Svacenický jarok the future development of degradation processes was analyzed based on the future prediction of rainfall events covering the period 2020-2100 and generated by CLM model (Climate Land Model). In both cases, the simulations were performed using the physically-based EROSION-3D model and three scenarios were created in order to model different land cover, land use, soil types and crops on agricultural land. The first scenario reflects current catchment conditions, the second reflects the best conditions (more forests, fewer pastures and unprotected land) and the third involves worst-case conditions (no protective measures or changes of inappropriate management practices). The results provide insight into the development of degradation processes, illustrate how changes in rainfall patterns affect soil degradation processes in the past and future and take into account different scenarios of management practices together with an analysis of the impact of rainfall events on these processes.</p>

<p>Changes in the hydrological cycle are increasingly influenced by climate change. Every year, droughts and floods increase and strongly threaten the landscape, buildings, human settlements and lives. Climate data from climate scenarios are used to predict extreme events in the future. Many methods can process the climate data and evaluate the hydrological characteristics, according to which it is possible to determine the changes in the hydrological regime in the landscape.</p> <p>The paper aims to characterize future changes in the hydrological regime for eight selected basins of Slovakia, which were divided into four groups according to location, i.e., eastern Slovakia, northern Slovakia, central Slovakia, and western Slovakia. The input data include mean daily discharges and are divided into four groups. The first group consists of observed daily discharges provided by the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute and represents the reference period from 1981 to 2010. The second group generates mean daily discharges using the HBV type TUW rainfall-runoff model in 1981-2010. The third and fourth groups simulate mean daily discharges using the meteorological inputs from the KNMI and MPI climate scenarios, containing data from 1981 to 2100. The available data were inputs to The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration program, and subsequent analyses are focused on mean monthly discharges, M-day minimum and maximum discharges, the occurrence of maximum and minimum discharge, and baseflow index. For assessing the future changes in hydrological regime characteristics, the reference and future period 2070-2100 were compared.</p> <p>The results indicated that the spring's most significant decrease in mean monthly discharges occurred in eastern Slovakia. Summer is characterized by a decrease in mean monthly discharges throughout Slovakia, especially in eastern Slovakia. In eastern Slovakia, a decrease in selected M-day minimum discharges is also expected. Minor changes are expected in the characteristics of the 90-day minimum discharge Q<sub>90d</sub> in the Topľa – Hanušovce and Topľou gauging station. The most significant changes can be expected in the Laborec - Humenné gauging station, where the 90-day minimum discharge Q<sub>90d</sub> can decrease by up to 38% compared to the reference period. The results show a rise of M-day maximum discharges of up to 50% in the gauging stations in the eastern part of Slovakia. The minimum discharge is shifted from November/January to October and the maximum from March to February/March.</p> <p>According to the increasing base flow index, the Váh River basin will have the best conditions for maintaining minimum discharges in drier periods. In the other basins, the values of the baseflow index decrease.</p> <p>An increase in mean monthly discharges may indicate future, increasing precipitation in given basins, predominantly in liquid form, or, on the other hand, increasing temperatures that can eliminate snow cover.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Acknowledgement</strong>:</p> <p><em>This study was supported by PhD student project ARPMP. The study was also supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency under Contract No. APVV-20-0374.</em></p>

This study evaluates future changes in M-day minimum and maximum discharges in selected river basins of Slovakia, which have been divided into four groups, i.e., western, central, northern, and eastern Slovakia. Four types of data were available for the analysis, i.e., observed mean daily discharges, modeled mean daily discharges using the rainfall-runoff model, and simulated mean daily discharges according to the climate scenarios. The Indicators of Hydrological Alteration program was used to estimate the M-day discharges.The results revealed an increase in the M-day minimum discharges in northern Slovakia. Eastern and Western Slovakia show a decrease in M-day minimum discharges and an increase in m-daily maximum discharges by 2100.

The paper is focused on an evaluation of changes in average monthly discharges and selected characteristics of maximum discharges (m-daily maximum discharges and the occurrence of maximum discharges) in the selected gauging station of Myjava in the Jablonica profile (5022) and the Hron gauging station in the Banská Bystrica profile (7160). The Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) software analyzed the data modelled using the MPI and the KNMI climate scenarios. The researched time period from 1981 to 2100 was divided into 4 thirty-year periods, i.e.